Toncoin (TON) has posted a steep annual decline approaching 72–76%, while on-chain and market metrics show a 95% drop in new users and a 72% fall in Total Value Locked (TVL), leaving about 80% of holders with unrealized losses.
Market data point to multiple structural drivers of TON’s sell-off. An oversupply of tokens diluted market value and coincided with a sharp fall in network activity and user engagement, eroding organic growth. Governance frictions and persistent spam risks undermined confidence, while macroeconomic headwinds amplified selling pressure. Regulatory events contributed to volatility, including regional crackdowns and a high-profile market compliance notice tied to a large $272.7 million purchase that weighed on sentiment.
The token’s circulating supply is roughly 2.44–2.47 billion TON, with a market capitalization fluctuating in the range of $7.10 billion to $7.50 billion and live price swings between $1.62 and $3.04. These dynamics have left a large share of holders in unrealized losses and explain the disparity between project fundamentals and market pricing.
Technical signals and short-term outlook for TON Token
Chart-based indicators show developing constructive patterns around the current trading band. Support concentrated at $1.50–$1.63 has held multiple times, and a descending wedge formation—often interpreted as bullish—has appeared as price compressed. Momentum measures have begun to improve: the MACD histogram turned positive and the RSI shows strengthening momentum, consistent with a potential bottoming phase. A notable intraday 34% wick that recovered quickly signals buyer interest after sharp selloffs. Traders will watch a decisive break and sustained close above $1.635 as confirmation of a trend reversal; holding above key Fibonacci retracement zones (0.5–0.618) would add conviction.
Short-term projections vary, reflecting uncertainty. A near-term technical push could place price between $2.04 and $2.51 (roughly 26.5%–59% upside from current levels). End-of-year and multi-year scenarios span a wide range, underscoring model dispersion and the sensitivity of outcomes to adoption and macro conditions.
The network is drawing dApp activity across DeFi, gaming and NFTs and advancing tooling such as a token minter and an EVM bridge to improve interoperability. Integration with the platform messaging layer and launches linked to AI initiatives and tokenized stocks aim to leverage the underlying user base and deepen utility. New projects choosing the chain include marketplace and community tokens that rely on the network’s scalability premise.
TON’s outlook hinges on two linked facts: technical confirmation above $1.635 and measurable ecosystem adoption to sustain higher valuations.
