An impending Hyperliquid token unlock valued at 314 million dollars has raised alarms in the decentralized market. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, warns that this event scheduled for Saturday will bring inevitable selling pressure, regardless of internal team promises regarding asset retention.
According to precise data, the platform will release 9.92 million HYPE coins all at once this weekend. This release represents 2.66% of the total supply and will be executed under a “cliff” model, meaning all assets will be available for trading simultaneously.
Currently, the token trades near 31 dollars, showing a 23% drop in the last month, which exacerbates the concern of retail investors. On the other hand, community members demand clearer communication, fearing that the team and airdrop recipients will liquidate their positions massively after the release.
Uncertainty grows given the lack of technical guarantees preventing immediate sale by developers. Hayes highlights that, even if the team verbally promises not to sell, there is no technical mechanism stopping them from doing so, so investors must assume daily selling pressure greater than 0%.
Likewise, he pointed to a sharp drop in the price-to-fully diluted valuation ratio since July as proof of bearish sentiment. This suggests that traders are already discounting the dilution risk, unless the platform’s revenue growth manages to outpace the sudden increase in circulating supply in the market.
Will trading volume be able to absorb the released liquidity without collapsing the price?
Despite the pessimism surrounding the upcoming Hyperliquid token unlock, the general DeFi sector shows notable operational resilience. Daily volumes on perpetual decentralized exchanges have remained consistent in November, ranging between 28 billion and 60 billion dollars despite the market slump.
Specifically, Hyperliquid recorded a volume of 259 billion in the last 30 days, positioning itself as the third-largest DEX in the sector. However, while some users criticize the lack of transparency, others argue that the team has legitimately earned their tokens and has the right to decide on them.
The situation poses a critical challenge to the token’s price stability in the very short term. While the operational fundamentals and volume of the exchange seem solid against its competitors, market reaction will depend on treasury management carried out by large holders immediately after Saturday. Thus, investors will closely watch if market liquidity is sufficient to absorb the new supply or if the capitulation feared by analysts materializes.
