XRP price looks set to break a two-year run of positive annual returns as it heads into year-end trading, with projections pointing to roughly an 11% decline if current levels hold. As of 24 de dic. de 2025 the token traded near $1.85–$1.91 amid intensified selling, a dynamic that undercuts prior gains and raises the risk of further capitulation.
Selling pressure concentrated in the final quarter has driven distribution by holders and measurable profit-taking, shifting short-term bias to the downside. On-chain metrics indicate about 42% of XRP wallets are currently underwater, having accumulated close to the $3 mark and now facing unrealized losses that in many cases exceed 40%, a cohort whose distress amplifies the chance of forced or preemptive sales that would add to downside momentum.
The current valuation represents a near 50% drop from July’s local high of $3.67, a reversal from prior cycles when XRP delivered annual gains of 81% in 2023 and 238% in 2024, a contrast that highlights how quickly retail conviction has weakened.
Institutional flows, network activity and technical signals
Institutional demand via XRP-focused exchange traded funds has recorded sustained net inflows, collectively surpassing $1.100 billion in assets under management and logging multi-week positive inflow streaks, including a week with inflows above $80 million. Despite that steady accumulation, the token has failed to reclaim the psychologically relevant $2.00 level, suggesting that passive ETF demand is not yet sufficient to offset active selling.
User sentiment on one exchange places a 73% probability that XRP will finish 2025 between $1.50 and $2.00, with a small but rising share of respondents expecting sub-$1.50 outcomes.
Network engagement metrics corroborate the price weakness, as active transacting addresses on the ledger fell to a monthly low of 34.005 in late December, while daily active addresses slipped from over 13.000 in November to just under 3.500 more recently, indicating waning utility-driven activity.
Technical positioning centers on the 20-day exponential moving average near $1.98 as a short-term hurdle, with a decisive break above that level cited as a condition for a meaningful rebound.
The interplay of concentrated year-end selling, a large share of underwater holders and falling network activity leaves XRP positioned to close 2025 in negative territory despite ongoing institutional ETF inflows.
