Historical data suggest that XRP could register a December return much higher than Bitcoin’s, despite its greater volatility. XRP Price Prediction summarizes that, while XRP’s December median is negative (-3,16%), its historical mean reaches 69,6%, reflecting extreme episodes that could make it an outperformer in December.
The contrast between median and mean defines the main signal. Bitcoin tends to show a median December increase of 8,42%, providing a stable reference; XRP, by contrast, presents a median of -3,16% but a mean of 69,6%, driven by extraordinary months.
In 2014 XRP rose 118,1% in December and in 2017 reached 531,9%; those atypical outbursts raise the mean and explain the observed statistical asymmetry.
This mismatch indicates that the probability of losses in any given December exists, but also that the expected value favors larger moves when “home runs” occur. For investors, this translates into a clear risk/reward equation: a higher probability of pullback versus a lower but powerful probability of sudden run-ups.
Catalysts that could propel XRP in December
The probability that XRP surpasses Bitcoin in December does not depend only on past statistics; several recent factors increase the plausibility of the scenario. The resolution of litigation with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission reduced a relevant regulatory barrier, restoring institutional confidence.
That legal clarity, together with the possibility of approval of spot ETFs on XRP, fuels expectations of significant institutional flows: some analysts project a 150% advance to reach $6 in five years, with short-term targets for the end of 2025 between $2,25 and $3,81 and potential peaks near $4, according to market sources.
The macroeconomic context is also relevant. The CME FedWatch showed an 80% probability of a rate cut in the fourth quarter of 2025, which would increase liquidity in risk assets and could favor flow-sensitive tokens, such as XRP. In addition, the rotation of disinvested capital from Bitcoin — with reported institutional outflows of approximately $1,94 billion in one week — creates space for regulated altcoins with clear use cases to capture part of that capital.
Historical indicators and regulatory and macroeconomic catalysts place XRP in a position to potentially outperform Bitcoin in December, albeit with a high risk profile.
