The cryptocurrency market has witnessed a disappointing performance for XRP, the digital currency associated with Ripple. Despite a series of seemingly optimistic announcements at the company’s recent Swell event, XRP price falls significantly, extending its losing streak into November. This drop of over 9% has raised concerns, as technical charts show a breakdown of a bearish flag pattern and the imminent formation of a “death cross,” suggesting a potential continuation of its downtrend towards key support levels.
XRP reached a high near $2.40 on November 5. However, in the hours following Ripple’s flagship Swell conference, XRP price has fallen sharply, sliding to $2.19. This dynamic is a reflection of the well-known “buy the rumor, sell the news” phenomenon, which often follows Ripple’s annual events. Swell’s announcements included a $500 million funding round led by Citadel Securities and Fortress Investment Group. They also detailed new integrations for their RLUSD stablecoin and previewed a decentralized lending protocol on the XRP Ledger (XRPL).
Despite these news items, XRP price failed to maintain its momentum. In fact, in four of the last five years since 2020, XRP has recorded negative returns between the Swell event and year-end. This suggests that the event’s euphoria consistently fades faster than the headlines. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s brief dip below $100,000, amid equity market weakness and liquidity tightening in the US, has cooled sentiment across altcoins, including XRP.
Does XRP’s death cross herald a fall below $2?
XRP’s recent decline has confirmed a classic bearish flag continuation setup. This is further reinforced by an impending “death cross,” which occurs when the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) falls below the 200-period EMA. The bearish flag pattern formed after XRP’s sharp drop from approximately $3.60 in early September. This was followed by a narrow consolidation channel that sloped upwards towards $2.60.
The decisive rejection of the flag’s upper boundary and the subsequent breakdown below its lower one suggest that sellers are regaining control. Thus, XRP may fall towards the $1.65-$1.70 range. This level aligns with the measured move target of the bearish flag and April’s support. Furthermore, this projected downside target closely aligns with XRP’s aggregate realized price, according to Glassnode data. This level represents the average on-chain cost basis across all wallet cohorts, meaning a retest could mark a key value zone where long-term holders historically accumulate. Such convergence often acts as a psychological and technical support floor, limiting further downward pressure and confirming why XRP price falls.
