XRP traces a textbook bull flag but repeatedly stalls at $3.65 while the MACD flashes red. Traders and funds who track breakouts keep the $4.40 – $5.50 zone on watch for late-2025, with some counts pointing above $6.00 before 2025 ends. Despite the setup, Jina’s read is “not yet” — no breakout has been logged.
The note highlights a bull flag and a bull pennant, both projecting toward $4.40 – $5.50 and, in some counts, above $6.00 by year-end 2025. Each test of $3.65 has ended with a sell-off, showing buyers fade at that price. A descending triangle now looms, and a break south would aim at $2.75 – $2.80.
The MACD has crossed lower, a setup that preceded short drops in the past. A bull flag is a sharp move up followed by a tight range; it hints at another leg higher but does not promise it. Jina caps the briefing with “not yet,” underscoring that the breakout has not confirmed.
Outcomes, catalysts, and timeline
Four joint outcomes and a brief map of levels and catalysts. The range continues to tighten as it nears the apex, a phase that often transfers coins from weak to strong hands, while the triangle and MACD raise the odds of a fake out or bull trap. After past closes above the yearly high, the mean gain sat at 8.5 % after five days (67 % hit rate), 14.8 % after ten and 34.7 % after thirty, though the spread of results stays wide.
A daily close above $3.65 would be crucial to trigger long algorithms and potentially pave the way toward $5.50. However, the triangle formation and the MACD increase the odds of a fake breakout or bull trap. As the range tightens and approaches the apex, coins often shift from weak to strong hands, setting the stage for sudden volatility.
Looking at historical patterns, closes above the yearly high have led to an 8.5% gain over 5 days (with a 67% hit rate), 14.8% over 10 days, and 34.7% over 30 days. Still, results vary widely, underlining the need to weigh both technical setups and external factors shaping the market.
Price action is only half the story. Jina notes that a court clearance alongside ETF inflows — treasury shifts of $471 million and $25 million per day — back the bull case. The next checkpoint is an ETF launch in Q3 2025, with forecast inflows of $4.3 – $8.4 billion by October 2025. Until the tape prints a clear break, the read stays the same: setup in place, signal “not yet”.
