The digital asset market is showing a technical scarcity signal not seen in nearly a decade today. The XRP exchange supply has dropped to its lowest level since 2018, pushing the price toward $1.87 recently. According to Shaurya Malwa from CD Analytics, this 57% reduction in balances since October suggests that investors are moving their assets to long-term custody wallets.
This long-term storage dynamic is reinforcing a tightening supply narrative across the entire financial sector. Currently, only about 1.6 billion units are available on trading platforms for immediate sale to buyers. Therefore, the low XRP exchange supply acts as a fundamental support, even though the price remains trapped under a quite heavy technical resistance band.
Likewise, institutional participation has grown through regulated channels, while the spot market shows some short-term instability. Trading volume increased by 50% above the average during the last bullish move recorded in the session. In this way, the limited XRP exchange supply could amplify price movements when demand increases significantly in the future.
The two-dollar wall defines the ongoing battle between buyers and sellers
On the other hand, technical analysis reveals that the asset faces a very well-defined psychological and structural ceiling. Despite the drop in XRP exchange supply, the price repeatedly stalled near the $1.88 area during the day. This level precedes the $2 threshold, where sellers have historically defended their positions with great strength in the past.
It is important to note that momentum indicators show mixed signals, with bullish divergences that still need official confirmation. Meanwhile, the structure of this cryptocurrency remains constructive as long as the $1.82 support level is not breached soon. Therefore, the market is at a crucial turning point to define the trend for this first quarter.
Can the scarcity of tokens on platforms force a breakout above $2?
Likewise, a sustained breakout above $1.88 would open the door to a move toward the $1.95 target. If the $2 level is reclaimed, it would trigger a massive entry of momentum buyers into the market. However, if the $1.77 support fails, the price could slide toward much lower demand zones for investors.
Finally, the outlook for 2026 depends on who wins this “tug-of-war” between shrinking supply and technical resistance. The constant reduction in XRP exchange supply keeps a very positive long-term setup for holders globally. Undoubtedly, the success of the bullish narrative requires a decisive close above the current resistance levels shortly.
