January 2026 marked a historical milestone for the stablecoin sector, with an on-chain operational flow exceeding $10 trillion recorded in a single month. In this context, the USDC transaction volume led the expansion with more than $8.4 trillion processed, surpassing the combined monthly activity of traditional payment giants like Visa and Mastercard.
Despite processing figures that triple the volume of conventional credit card networks, Circle, the issuer of USDC, faces a severe disconnect with the equity markets. According to data from Artemis, while the digital asset’s utility is consolidating as a global financial infrastructure, the company’s shares (CRCL) have retreated nearly 80% from their peaks reached seven months ago.
This decline is largely due to investor concerns about Circle’s reliance on interest rates to generate revenue through its bond reserves. On the other hand, the recent expiration of the post-IPO lock-up period and fears of share dilution have pressured the price, bringing it near historical lows despite the explosive growth in token adoption.
Why does the market undervalue Circle despite its massive processing capacity?
Furthermore, several analysts suggest that Wall Street still classifies Circle as a cyclical “fintech” company rather than recognizing it as a critical infrastructure for the new financial system. Since 75% of the USDC supply is still linked to speculative activity in cryptocurrency protocols, the stock price maintains a high correlation with digital market volatility.
However, the expansion into new services like StableFX and the development of the Arc network seek to decouple the company’s revenue from traditional crypto cycles. In this way, the firm is trying to prove that its technology can handle foreign exchange operations and institutional settlements 24/7, representing a multi-trillion dollar potential market for the coming years.
The operational resilience of the stablecoin, backed by a strict regulatory compliance approach, has allowed it to gain ground against direct competitors in liquidity metrics and institutional usage. Therefore, even if the stock value is currently suffering, technical fundamentals suggest that stablecoins have become the most successful real-world product in the entire ecosystem.
As macroeconomic signals clear and interest rates stabilize, the market may begin to value Circle for its massive network scale. Consequently, the outlook for the end of 2026 will be crucial in observing whether massive adoption finally manages to reflect in the financial balance sheet and long-term shareholder confidence.
