Toncoin (TON) lost the critical $2.07 support after a wave of selling tied to a Nasdaq notice and large liquidations, a shift that complicates risk management for traders and large holders. The drop reached a low near $1.918 with above‑average volumes, increasing the likelihood of greater volatility over short horizons.
The correction accelerated after Nasdaq issued a warning related to TON Strategy Co. for a token purchase valued at $273 million without the required shareholder approval, according to Nasdaq’s own notice. The market reacted with an initial decline of 8–10% and volumes rising to almost 1.5 times the 24‑hour average, signaling a rapid exit by buyers.
Subsequent liquidations removed more than $1.4 billion in long positions, according to market liquidation data cited in reports. On-chain and market indicators turned bearish: the Spot Taker CVD moved negative and the Spot Netflow showed an inflow of tokens to exchanges of +$2.47 million, a pattern that often precedes further selling.
Context and impact of Toncoin’s drop
A rumor about a golden visa program in the United Arab Emirates linked to TON was debunked, weighing on investor sentiment. Supply is highly concentrated, with more than 68% held in a few wallets, magnifying directional moves when these entities unwind positions. Only 9% of holders were in profit near $2.12, increasing the risk of panic selling on rebounds.
The burn rate is the rate at which tokens are destroyed; a drop in the burn rate with rising inflation tends to increase selling pressure by widening the net supply. Supply economics showed strain as token inflation rose to 0.37% from 0.337% while the burn rate decreased, adding a headwind for price, and related ecosystem projects were trading near lows, amplifying risk aversion.
In the short term, traders should monitor the $2.00–$2.57 zone as a risk‑reward reference; the dynamics will depend on further regulatory confirmations, possible sales by large holders and net flow to exchanges. A sustained recovery will require clear signs of reduced supply and normalization of sentiment.
