Toncoin (TON) has repeatedly tried to overcome key resistances but is held back by strategic selling that limits its adoption in the short term. Over the last week, the price fell -7.89%, although it maintains a slight monthly gain of +3.60%, accumulating an annual loss of -59.40%. This situation combines pressure from large holders, sensitivity to regulatory news and technical confluence that turns every rally into an opportunity for profit-taking.
The price of TON slowdown responds to three factors operating simultaneously: concentrated selling by large holders, expectations already priced in regarding integration with Telegram and technical resistance lines that act as a psychological ceiling. The analysis identifies tactical selling by “whales” and institutional actors who distribute positions when the price approaches supply zones, generating frequent rejections at specific levels.
Pressure has been amplified by external news such as a warning of non-compliance linked to TON Strategy Co. by Nasdaq, which caused a temporary risk-off. Technically, immediate and medium-term resistances act as walls: from $2.07 to $2.34, with higher targets reaching up to $7.20. Key supports appear at $1.98; $1.90; $1.80 and lower levels. The RSI remains around 51, indicating neutral momentum.
Implications for TON price
The combination of concentrated selling and technical resistances suggests a market prone to ranges. Traders could favor short-term trades between support and resistance until a catalyst changes the narrative. Integration with Telegram remains the main adoption argument, but its effect has been partially neutralized by distribution dynamics and reactions to regulatory news.
Among the key points is that institutional sellers are unloading near resistances, limiting the upside continuation. Levels to watch include a sustained breakout with volume above $2.34 that would open the path to medium-term targets; by contrast, a clear break below $1.98 would intensify selling pressure and favor new tests of support.
