The ‘Santa Rally’ Could Take Bitcoin to $56,000 by the End of the Year

Bitcoin (BTC), leader of the crypto ecosystem, is on track to close the year with a spectacular boom.

According to Matrixport, a crypto service provider, there is one or more chances that BTC will manage to reach $56,000 before the end of the year.

This prediction is based on the notion of a “Santa Claus Rally” that has been a recurring feature in recent years.

Bitcoin and Its History Support This Claim

According to data and theory analyzed by MatrixPort, in 7 of the previous 12 years, Bitcoin has seen at least a 100% increase in the first 10 months of the year.

In these same years, it has averaged an impressive 65% increase particularly in the last 8 weeks of the year.

Bitcoin’s October surge of +28% and impressive year-to-date growth of +108% should come as no surprise, given #Matrixport Research’s earlier prediction, backed by strong institutional support and a 90% probability breakout signal. Historical data affirms the #Bitcoin… pic.twitter.com/hACEWI6tXH

— Matrixport (@realMatrixport) November 3, 2023

Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy at Matrixport, has highlighted that when Bitcoin has registered an increase of 50% or more at the end of October, there is an average of 78% probability that it will continue its rise towards the end of the year, with a additional increase of 68%.

According to his own statements:

“If Bitcoin increases by at least 100% at this time of year, according to the model formed according to Sir Isaac Newton’s third law of motion, there is a high probability that it will end the year in question at a higher level, with a year -end increases of 60-65% on average.

This probability is currently 71%

In this context, since the BTC trend will peak on December 18, Bitcoin may continue its rise for six to seven weeks, from early November to mid-December. Then you can experience a Santa Claus Rally in BTC until around December 18.

According to historical statistics, Bitcoin continues to offer upside potential and a +60-65% rally by the end of the year could take prices to $56,000.”

What Factors Could Cause This Impulse?

Several factors are at play. The prospect of a BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) has generated optimism in the market. Speculation surrounding the Federal Reserve’s liquidity tightening cycle and growing investor demand have contributed to this rise.

The notion of a “Santa Claus Rally” for Bitcoin is based on its history. The cryptocurrency tends to peak around December 18, which has led to the creation of this metaphor in reference to the traditional bull season in financial markets in December.

As of today, November 3, 23, Bitcoin has seen a staggering 114% increase in one year. Trading around 34,500 at the time of writing.

If Matrixport’s prediction comes true in the coming weeks and rises 65% more, we could see BTC trading above $65,000 before the end of the year.

This would be a testament to the power of BTC to maintain its bullish momentum even in an environment of volatility and global economic challenges of various characteristics.