Anniversary year for the first cryptocurrency was not entirely festive. Since January, the total capitalization of the crypto market has fallen by about 8 times. However, if you do not compare the current market position with the anomalies of the end of 2017, and evaluate it as a very young, in fact, only an emerging industry, the conclusions will be much broader and more favorable than just a multi-billion dollar FUD.
“I believe that the breakthrough that this technology will bring cannot be fully realized in just one year ,” says Max Cordec, CEO and co-founder of cryptocurrency Lisk,
Of course, the crypto-industry still needs many educational projects and research that do not fit in the next year, 2019. However, there are already some predictions for 2019, and you can see in which direction, according to experts, the crypto industry will take the road in the coming year.
Promotion of steylcoin
In the middle of 2018, the founder of Havven, Kane Warwick, wrote that “every second project is a stableblock ”. According to a Blockchain survey published in late September, the number of steakbloins has increased significantly over the last 12-18 months, and more than a dozen different companies have announced plans to launch steybcocoin by the end of this year.
The development of this particular niche is associated with the expectations of Dmitry Lazarichev, co-founder and general director of cryptobank Wirex.
“Stablecoins will bring more liquidity, since they are practically not volatile relative to Bitcoin and other Altcoins and more understandable to institutional investors. In addition, with the development of these assets, we expect a new round of popularization of cryptocurrency among merchants (online / offline sellers of goods and services), as calculations in steakloins will avoid sharp jumps in rates that can lead to loss of profit in trade. In addition, the stablebcoins are able to bring new players to the market – individuals who have not previously used cryptocurrencies, as stebblocoins are more understandable and closer to fiat currencies than bitcoin and other [cryptocurrencies], ” he commented.
Ethereum Ecosystem Development
Although by December 15, the former “second cryptocurrency” had lost 94% of its January maximum and had come down to 3rd place in the top 10 cryptocurrency market capitalization long ago, and new contenders for the title of “Ethereum killer” (including those who completed $ 4- billionth ICO EOS), Ethereum community is optimistic and believes that Ethereum will be able to solve internal problems, including issues of scalability and security.
“As an Ethereum-maximalist, I expect next year from Ethereum 2.0, first of all, great progress in second-level solutions, such as sharding, PoS, Plasma. More than 10 teams work in parallel only on the latter. For example, I wait from my friends from LeapDAO to launch a working network. I'm really looking forward to a normal solution with randomness (security issues when generating random numbers) next year. At DevCon4, the most memorable performance was about this , ”said Anton Akentev, founder of Thetta.
Ethereum also focuses on improving communication between developers and the community: after a major controversy that erupted around the proposal to return lost funds (primarily frozen Parity funds) and the departure of Yoichi Hirai – the editor of this offer’s code – from his post, Vitaly Buterin held a developer meeting, noting that “the control mechanism [Ethereum] is generally not so bad” and that, in his opinion, the main drawback lies not in the mechanism itself, but in how information is transmitted, and this, in turn, is confusing part of the process that sentences go through before they are embedded in the actual code of the platform.
“The impression that many members of the community received“ from the outside ”is that EIP 867 (proposal for the return of lost funds) is much closer to implementation than it actually is,” said Buterin. Developer Greg Colvin, involved in improving the management of the Ethereum Foundation, noted that team members need to work harder to ensure that the nature of new projects is understood by the community. “In reality, there should not be a large-scale debate on whether we should give this EIP number and call it a project. This is a technical, editorial question. It should not be so complicated and controversial , ”said Colvin.
Other high-profile disputes within the Ethereum community were caused by another proposal to recover lost funds (EIP-999), as well as details of the planned hardtop Constantinople , which is scheduled for mid-January 2019 and is designed to improve network performance and reduce commissions, preparing the network for more ambitious scalability improvements — sharding and Casper .
In both cases, there were rumors about a possible hard forks network due to disagreement between the two leading Ethereum clients, as well as between other developers. However, at the moment, the Ethereum community still manages to find a compromise on controversial situations, and there are no “unplanned” network splits:
“I am very glad that Ethereum has finally chosen the“ let's first think, and then we will implement it ”, since the time of the HYIP has passed, and the opportunity has arisen to think and conduct qualitative research ,” comments Aktentyev.
Institutional capital
Hu Liang, co-founder and CEO of Omniex and former senior vice president of State Street, believes that cryptocurrency should go beyond retail in 2019 "to create a crypto-ecosystem that allows institutional investors to participate in the crypto and blockchain-revolution":
“Let's not forget that cryptocurrency is the only asset class in history that did not start from the institutional front, and we are left with an ecosystem deprived of institutional infrastructure as a retail phenomenon, ” writes Liang, noting that all the prerequisites for changing this already exist. .
The year 2018 has shown that cryptocurrencies and blockchains have definitely attracted the attention of institutions. As cryptocurrencies move beyond the retail market, companies such as Fidelity, ICE (parent company NYSE), NASDAQ, Microsoft, Starbucks, and Ivy League host of charity foundations have either launched initiatives or invested in [crypto] space. Along with [the activities of] global regulators, these concerted efforts are now laying all the relevant functions and a solid foundation for entering the space of institutional fund managers. ”
“Two big areas in which we see interest in the use of the blockchain by enterprises are finance and the supply chain. We are already seeing significant progress in the form of the Hyperledger, Ethereum Enterprise Alliance and Corda. We can expect corporations to invest additional time and resources in 2019 to understand how to optimize parts of their business through the decentralization and transparency that the blockchain provides , ” said Luca Horvath, head of the development vertical at Toptal.
Gary Jensler, former chairman of the United States Commodity Futures Commission (CFTC) and senior adviser at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) media laboratory as part of a cryptocurrency initiative, also reflects on the place of institutional players in the blockchain industry, noting the potential of corporate private blockchains (such as Quorum or projects being developed within the Hyperledger consortium):
“Although Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin survived a decade of trials, the question still remains:“ What does this mean for 2019 and beyond? ”. Central brokers remain a real part of our economies. The financial sector primarily explores the use of exclusive private blockchains, rather than cryptocurrencies. Will there be found ways to use a commercial scale, in which the advantages of lower costs for verification and communication really greatly exceed the costs, challenges and difficulties of blockchain technology? .. I remain optimistic, especially with regard to the use of exclusive private blockchains. ”
Regarding public blockchains and their native tokens, Jensler notes that today's difficult period on the market can help unleash their true potential (or lack thereof):
“Will users find real economic value in native tokens associated with similar projects? During the downturn of the market, we can begin to find out. As Warren Buffett wrote in a letter from the chairman in 2002, after the biggest loss of Berkshire Hathaway: “Yet, finding out who swims naked can only be done when the tide recedes.” ”
Improving the quality of blockchain projects
Many experts expect an increase in the quality of blockchain projects due to "natural selection": projects may become smaller, not everyone will be able to survive, but they must become stronger as the "self-awareness" of the industry as a whole grows.
“The token model is going through a change. Companies are beginning to realize that not all projects need tokens, and STO with real reinforcement of assets will become dominant , ”comments Atsushi Hisatsumi, founder of the marketing agency for blockchain projects Extravaganza.
Liang also notes that “an important area of improvement in 2019 is the wider adoption of decentralized networks at the protocol level”:
“New features are an invitation for startups. The important thing to remember is that not all startups succeed. Despite the downturn of the ICO boom, as real innovation gains wider acceptance, the real intrinsic value of cryptocurrencies will be realized, and this will be a great moment. ”
Cryptocurrency to the masses
Some crypto enthusiasts believe that the era of everyday cryptocurrency payments and p2p-economy will come very soon.
So, Dmitry Lazarichev believes that an increase in the number of holders of crypto assets among individuals (expected due to the convenience of steklokoinov) will lead to an increase in the number of p2p transfers and settlements in cryptocurrency in stores.
Blockchain to solve real problems
Co-founder and CEO Monax, Casey Kulman, believes that the industry will focus in the near future on real problems that blockchains can solve, and not on “an obsession with success or failure of individual coins or ups and downs of the market”:
“In 2019, I hope we will apply the technology in a huge number of industries that can and should benefit from transparency, speed, efficiency and reliability [of the blockchain].”
And although the widespread use of the blockchain – in the energy, aviation, credit, the music industry and even in the unmanned car market – causes controversy and doubts about its real need for these niches, Dmitry Lazarichev believes that the trend of using the blockchain in various fields will continue:
“In 2019, the market will pay attention to … narrowly focused blockchains developed for a specific industry (health care, education, etc.). We observed this process already in 2018, but in 2019 it will be more accented, ” he commented.
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