The dependence of the cryptocurrency rate, network complexity and profitability of mining

The main digital coin has risen in price by 36% over the month, analysts are betting on a further appreciation of the course. Does this mean that it is time for single miners to blow dust from their cryptocurrency mining devices, for large players to buy new equipment? RBC Crypto talks about this.

According to Google Trends, the largest number of requests for the key phrase “ Bitcoin mining ” was received on April 11, 2019 after the first cryptocurrency for the first time in the current year reached a price mark of $ 5416. On the same day, another request for a mining farm turned out to be in demand. Search engine users thought about purchasing cryptocurrency mining equipment on April 15 and 22, when the BTC rate was $ 5186 and $ 5336, respectively.

The April rise in the price of the main coin had a positive effect on the mining industry, allowing it not to go into negative profitability indicators, said Valery Petrov, the vice president of Rakib for the development and regulation of the market. The positive impact of the growth rate of Bitcoin on the mining industry as a whole and on the profit of cryptocurrency miners in particular was noted by Victor Pershikov, leading analyst of crypto corporation.

BitCluster Development Director Dmitry Shuvaev looks at the situation a little differently. He believes that the big miners do not have a big advantage because of the growth of the BTC rate, unless, of course, they adhere to the accumulation strategy and do not earn on price jumps. However, he notes that with cheap electricity, miners are always in an advantageous position.

According to Shuvaev’s calculations, the yield of a single Antminer S9i device at a price of BTC $ 5,500 is slightly more than 2,600 rubles a month with a price of electricity of 3.53 p. KW * hour At that moment, when BTC was worth $ 4,500, the yield was lower – about 1600 rubles per month. If the first cryptocurrency returns to price indices of $ 5000, then miners with the same cost of electricity will receive about 2000 rubles. The growth rate will increase the yield to about 3000-3300 rubles.

Last November, the new Antminer S15 devices appeared on the market. These asik are two times more productive than S9. This year, Bitmain launched the S17 , which should work 23% more efficiently than the previous generation.

Yield of other mining devices when mining different cryptocurrencies

The potential profit per device was determined with the help of whattomine.com service, given the complexity of the network at the moment, without deducting the price for electricity (5 rubles per sq / h).

Nvidia Geforce GTX 1080 ti . One of the most expensive and productive cards. For the new model will have to pay more than 71 thousand rubles. Used can be found for 30-50 thousand rubles. With this device it is advantageous to mine Ethereum , Monero and Ethereum Classic . For one ETH block you can get about 19 thousand rubles. On the day of mining, the second by capitalization of cryptocurrency will bring about 46 rubles, the same amount can be obtained for Ethereum Classic.

On the production of Monero, you can earn 21 rubles a day. In a month for mining Ethereum, you can get a little more than 1,300 rubles. The used device will pay off in about 3 years, the new model – in 4.5. During this time period, the situation on the crypto market may change dramatically, it is worth considering the fact that the video card may not last for such a long time.

Radeon RX 480. On avito, this video card can be found from 5-10 thousand rubles. The new model costs about 19 thousand. The average daily income from mining Ethereum and Ethereum Classic will be about 27 rubles, monthly – 810 rubles. If you buy the device with it, you can pay it back in about a year, and the new video card is almost two.

AMD Radeon RX 580. Also suitable for mining cryptocurrency algorithm Ethash. The daily mining of the Nicehash-Ethash coin will bring about 30 rubles. For mining ETH and ETC, you can get about 28 rubles per day and 840 rubles per month. The new video card costs about 15 thousand rubles, it will pay off on average for a year and 4 months. Used can be found for 7-9 thousand rubles, the costs will be justified in 9-10 months.

NVIDIA GeForce RTX 2060. Suitable for mining little-known tokens. For the day of the extraction of the Ravencoin (RVN) coin, you can get about 42 rubles. Mining token Bitcoin Interest (BCI) will bring about 39 rubles, and Zcoin (XZC) – 36 rubles. The average price of a new video card is about 25 thousand rubles. If you focus only on the production of Ravencoin cryptocurrency, then it will be possible to recoup the device in about a year and 6 months.

BitCluster experts note that the used equipment market is active today. Some invest in the industry, buying miners, others, on the contrary, go out, taking profits and selling devices. At the same time, new devices are not popular.

“As for the entrance to mining through the purchase of new equipment, there is no influx of people. This is due to the fact that unused devices now cost about $ 2,300 (with delivery to the Russian Federation) and there is a fear of returning a situation in which equipment can become cheaper if the rate drops, ”consider BitCluster.

Russians began to sharply sell mining equipment in early 2018. Then in just one month on the Avito website, the number of ads on this topic grew by more than 60%, reaching a figure of 23,000. Today, 668 ads in the mining farm category are presented on the same portal, 192 offers for the query mining equipment and 340 types of ASIC and components for them.

Factors affecting the complexity of mining cryptocurrency

LetsTrip Operations Director Ruslan Edikhanov believes that solo mining participants need to have patience, as they are unlikely to make more profit in the near future.

“The complexity, in addition to the course, can be affected by such factors as the adoption of laws against miners in China, as well as the release of new miners from leading equipment manufacturers. These factors are directly opposite to each other. It is rather difficult to predict the further movement of this indicator , ”Yedikhanov noted.

Chinese bans can really undermine the mining sphere. On April 9, the National Development and Reform Commission of China (NDRC) proposed banning mining of cryptocurrencies. The bill will be studied until May 7. If it is accepted, then any activity in the country associated with this industry will immediately cease.

Globally, this may lead to increased volatility of the most popular cryptocurrencies. But the ban also has its advantages: for example, Russia can become an alternative to China, which is the best region for transporting farms both from a geographical point of view and from the point of view of the planned legislative regulation of this activity in the country, a leading analyst of cryptocorporation adhered to this point of view. Mine Victor Pershikov.

The impact of Bitcoin on the mining industry

Chinese restrictions are not so much concerned about the cryptocurrency world, as the further fate of Bitcoin. Experts have made several assumptions about what will happen to the field of extraction of cryptocurrency at different rates of the main digital coin.

If bitcoin falls below $ 5,000

According to Valery Petrov, at the moment when the price for the first cryptocurrency fell to $ 4,000, the profitability rate tends to zero, especially in countries with a high cost of electricity.

After raising the BTC to the level of $ 5,400 – $ 5,500 profitability increased by about 20-25%. The expert believes that if the price of Bitcoin does not hold above $ 5000, then the mining will remain the lot of professionals with large farms.

“It is necessary to take into account the psychological factor: after a long crypto-winter, everyone realized not only the potential profit from mining, but also the associated level of risk. Many of those lovers who could not even manage to “beat off” the money invested in the equipment no longer want to repeat this experiment , ”said Petrov.

If Bitcoin stays at $ 5,400 – $ 5,300

The current price of Bitcoin is optimal for earning on mining, said Victor Pershikov. According to his calculations, in the North-West Federal District at an average cost of 4 rubles per kilowatt, bitcoin mining is profitable at a rate above $ 4,500.

Even with the presence of regions with a more favorable cost of electricity, for the industry it is not desirable that the rate be below $ 4500-5000 for Bitcoin.

If bitcoin reaches $ 6000

The specialists of BitCluster and Mine agreed that there is a high probability of Bitcoin growth to the level of $ 6000. However, against the background of rising prices for Bitcoin, the complexity of its production is also growing. If at the moment when the April jump took place, the course outpaced the growth of complexity, then even if Bitcoin consolidates at the designated level for several months, then the complexity of mining will still grow smoothly, and the industry will not notice the special effect of April growth of cryptocurrency.

Also, LetsTrip operating director Ruslan Yedikhanov assumes that after raising the exchange rate to $ 6,000, the coin will drop to a $ 4,500 price mark. For experienced miners, as well as for long-term investors, such fluctuations are not so critical, and price jumps will have a negative impact on the profitability of single cryptocurrency miners.

If Bitcoin Rises Above $ 9,000 – $ 10,000

Cryptocorporation analyst Mine expects that the rate of the first cryptocurrency will reach $ 9000 in October this year. The cost can be triggered by the launch of the TON project by Pavel Durov, which is expected in the second half of 2019. However, according to Pershikov, this may happen earlier. If BTC manages to overcome this mark and the rate of price growth will outpace the growth of complexity, then the demand for equipment will increase several times from its current values.

Bitcoin's rise in price to $ 10,000 can be a signal for the return of small and medium-sized players to the mining market, Valery Petrov is sure. With the high cost of the first cryptocurrency, you can expect a 30-40% increase in sales of mining equipment. Dmitry Shuvaev agrees with this point of view. He believes that when the BTC transcends the psychological mark of $ 10,000. There will be a great demand when everyone sees

Experts agreed that single miners will start entering the industry more confidently when they see a long-term uptrend on the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. However, even this is unlikely to lead to a new “mining fever”, similar to the one that saw the cryptometer in 2017, although, as practice shows, the digital money industry is unpredictable.

Publication date 27/04/2019
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