Solana (SOL) is currently experiencing significant depreciation, and according to market data, several indicators suggest it may continue to fall. Some projections place its price at an estimated $50.
One of the key points to analyze regarding Solana (SOL) is its clear long-term structural deterioration, supported by various timeframes and positioning metrics. Analysis shows that the token reached a high of $293–$299 in 2025, before falling rapidly to $105 in early 2026.
After breaking below that level, various analysts projected measured price movements pointing to even lower double-digit prices, with recurring targets between $50 and $42, although some traders identified the $103–$104 zone as a potential area for reversal or consolidation.
Another point to consider in Solana’s price analysis is that the charts showed a clear sequence of support failures. When the price closed below the psychological level of $100 and broke the $79–$81 range, it soon broke the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around $118. This break shifted the focus to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level near $70 and a psychological band/MVRV close to $75, reinforcing the view of a market still searching for a deeper bottom.
The asset was trading below the key short- and medium-term EMAs (50 and 100 days) and also below the 200-week moving average, with bearish crossovers already confirmed.
Can Solana recover its 2025 level?
The third chart focused on positioning and momentum, reinforcing the negative narrative. Funding rates remained persistently in negative territory, indicating a dominance of short positions. In parallel, open interest in futures fell from over $8.82 billion in January to around $6.35 billion, reflecting a partial withdrawal of speculative capital and reduced buying conviction.
The RSI remained below 50 and repeatedly entered oversold territory without showing clear bullish divergences, while the MACD histogram expanded downwards. Taken together, these data points indicated sustained selling pressure and a market with weakened buying interest, a combination that typically favors trend extensions.
From an operational perspective, the charts suggested two main approaches. On the one hand, follow the bearish directional bias until the price recovers the neckline or key EMAs, with technical zones such as $70–$75 and then $50 as reference points. On the other hand, wait for clear reactions at these levels to attempt lower-risk entries.
