Solana (SOL) is experiencing an intense market battle. Recent whale movements of $240 million to exchanges suggest strong selling pressure. This is happening just as optimism grows for an ETF. 21Shares has filed key documentation with the SEC, fueling speculation. The Solana price analysis is focused on the critical support at $190.
On-chain data shows significant institutional movements. Forward Industries transferred $192 million in SOL to Coinbase. Additionally, Galaxy Digital moved another $50 million to Binance. Historically, these large exchange deposits are interpreted as a sign of imminent selling. This “whale” action places a short-term ceiling on the price.
However, an opposing force is gaining ground simultaneously. Optimism surrounds the upcoming spot Solana ETF. The firm 21Shares has filed Form 8-A(12B) with the SEC. This is one of the final regulatory steps before the fund can officially launch. If approved, this financial product could attract new institutional capital. Such inflows would help absorb the current market supply generated by the sales.
Technically, SOL needs to defend a crucial zone. The Solana price analysis highlights the $190-$200 range as vital support. SOL has successfully retested $190 after breaking out of a long 18-month accumulation range. According to analyst Ali, if this level holds, the next key target is set at $260. This area is fundamental for the continuation of the bullish trend.
Can the ETF momentum overcome technical resistance?
Other analysts offer complementary bullish perspectives. Some interpret the recent pullback as a corrective Wave 2, according to Elliott Wave theory. This suggests that a powerful upward Wave 3 could follow soon. They view the $190-$200 range as an ideal entry zone for accumulation. Furthermore, SOL has an unfilled price gap (Fair Value Gap) between $204-$210. This technical factor positions SOL as a strong candidate for short-term trades.
Solana is at a decisive crossroads. The bullish scenario depends on its ability to hold the $190-$200 support. If it succeeds and closes the $210 gap, the path to $260 becomes clear. Demand from the ETF will be key for this digital economy. Conversely, if whales continue to liquidate their positions, SOL is at risk. It could return to the $100-$150 accumulation range before attempting another significant rally.
