Solana’s (SOL) price remains under sustained distribution pressure, trading near the critical $90 support level following a sharp global market sell-off. Despite this retreat, technical analysis reveals a descending wedge formation on the daily chart, suggesting that Solana accumulation by strategic investors continues to strengthen at significantly undervalued price levels.
According to on-chain data from Glassnode, SOL’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has currently dropped to 0.65, its lowest level recorded since September 2023. This metric indicates that the vast majority of holders are underwater, a condition that historically tends to mark the end of corrective phases and the beginning of prolonged stabilization periods for leading digital assets within the current cycle.
Holder Resilience and Signals of Extreme Undervaluation
Despite the notable drop in market capitalization, investor behavior reflects an unusual resilience compared to the mass capitulation seen in previous cycles. The blockchain shows that SOL’s realized price remains above the spot price, a technical configuration that has consistently coincided with macro bottoms, allowing whales to absorb the available supply with a clear long-term vision.
On the other hand, institutional capital flow seems to follow a strategic rotation pattern rather than a desperate panic-driven exit. In fact, since December 2025, large participants have completed the Solana accumulation of approximately 5 million tokens, representing an investment of roughly 455 million dollars during this period of price weakness across major exchange platforms.
Moreover, the current descending wedge structure projects a significant recovery potential if buyers successfully defend the current support levels. Thus, the slowing downside momentum suggests that the market is building a solid base, minimizing sell-side urgency among retail traders and preparing the ground for an eventual trend reversal toward the end of the first quarter.
Which Levels Must SOL Reclaim to Confirm a Bullish Reversal?
For the optimistic scenario to be validated, the asset must first reclaim the immediate resistance at $104 and flip it into support. If Solana accumulation persists and buying volume increases, the price could aim for a technical target of $156, representing a 31% expansion from current levels, driven by a recovery in overall sentiment within the decentralized finance ecosystem.
Moreover, analysts warn that losing the psychological support at $83 would invalidate any short-term bullish thesis. Should selling pressure intensify, the asset could test the $75 zone, confirming the continuation of the corrective trend and forcing investors to re-evaluate their entry strategies in the face of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty and lower liquidity.
Ultimately, Solana’s fate appears tied to the ability of large holders to maintain their conviction during this period of volatility. Although the technical landscape is complex, the consistent Solana accumulation suggests that the project’s fundamental value remains attractive, offering an asymmetric positioning opportunity for those who prioritize network utility over daily price fluctuations.
