Recent data from the analytics firm CryptoQuant reveal that the market could be entering a severe Bitcoin bearish trend following unusual movements. Analyst Maartunn confirmed today that whales have transferred $7.5 billion dollars to Binance in the last 30 days, replicating dangerous historical selling patterns.
On the other hand, this massive capital movement represents the highest level recorded in a calendar year, alarmingly coinciding with periods of high volatility. Specifically, the analyst compared this current spike with the scenario experienced in March 2025, when the asset price plummeted from $102,000 to the $70,000 zone in a few weeks. Likewise, Maartunn warned that 30-day flow metrics continue to climb without pause, suggesting that selling pressure has not stabilized and that large investors seek to manage risks or take profits aggressively given the market weakness.
Are we facing the start of a crypto winter or just a temporary correction?
Furthermore, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, noted that on-chain indicators are predominantly negative and depend on future macroeconomic liquidity. In this sense, expert G. Martín argued in his analysis that the October high of $126,000 could have marked the post-halving cycle top, indicating that the current technical market structure has broken. Thus, he compared the October 10 deleveraging event, where $19 billion was wiped out, with the initial stages of the 2021 bear market, suggesting that fear sentiment dominates over fundamentals at this critical moment for investors.
Therefore, expectations regarding Fed rate cuts in December might not be enough to save the price of the leading digital asset. Martín explained that if the Federal Reserve reduces its balance sheet, private capital will have to absorb those assets, draining the liquidity needed to boost risk assets like cryptocurrencies. He also highlighted that 95% of retail investors bought at an average cost of $115,000 during recent euphoria, implying that many are trapped in losing positions and operating under denial instead of rational analysis.
Finally, the analysis suggests that the asset could revisit the $70,000 or $73,000 lows again before attempting any significant recovery. If current Fed policies end the 4-year cycle, the market could hit bottom only in late 2026 when global liquidity returns. Therefore, it will be crucial for the price to reclaim major resistances following the massive November sell-off to avoid confirming a prolonged winter and allow a relief rally towards $95,000 in the medium term.
