RAIN surged to an all-time high near $0,0100, yet failed to hold the breakout as a cross-cohort discrepancy in holder behavior created persistent selling pressure. The on-chain picture explains why a strong intraday move did not translate into sustained upside.
On-chain analysis showed fresh capital entering the market at levels below the cost basis of established holders, producing a structural mismatch that capped upside. Large addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million RAIN tokens added roughly 162 million tokens in a single 24-hour window (≈ $1,55 million). Over ten days this cohort posted net accumulation of about 394 million tokens, valued at roughly $3,79 million.
Those whale purchases provided an important price floor, absorbing substantial sell-side interest. Still, the broader market failed to supply matching demand. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) registered declining inflows, signaling weaker participation from retail and mid-sized investors and limiting the whales’ ability to lift price sustainably.
Technicals and short-term momentum
Technical indicators reinforced the narrative of a stalled breakout. A negative MACD histogram pointed to bearish near-term momentum despite the ATH test. In practice, aggressive accumulation by large holders has been neutralized by profit-taking and a lack of complementary demand, leaving price action rangebound after the spike.
This dynamic creates heightened sensitivity to order flow: with concentrated buy-side support from a limited cohort, any uptick in profit-taking or a pause in whale buying could quickly tip the balance toward a pullback. Conversely, renewed participation from retail or mid-sized holders would be required to convert the ATH test into a durable breakout.
Operationally, the market now shows low breadth: concentrated accumulation underpins headline prices, but declining CMF and negative momentum indicators warn that those prices remain fragile and dependent on continued whale conviction.
Investors are now turning their attention to whether RAIN can reclaim and hold levels above $0,0100; sustained broader inflows would be the clearest signal that the holder discrepancy has resolved in favor of higher prices, while continued divergence would keep the token capped and vulnerable to a deeper retracement.
