Portugal’s gambling regulator, SRIJ, has ordered the immediate suspension of the Polymarket prediction market operations in the Lusitanian territory. This drastic measure arises after detecting a betting volume exceeding one hundred million euros linked to the recent presidential elections. Authorities granted a forty-eight-hour period for the total cessation of activities within the country.
According to the regulatory body, the platform operates illegally as it lacks the necessary licenses to offer gambling services. In Portugal, the legislation in force since 2015 is extremely strict regarding the events subject to betting. The Gaming Regulation and Inspection Service (SRIJ) emphasized that betting on national or international political events is prohibited by law.
The fact is that the surge of the platform during the elections on January 18 immediately triggered institutional alarms. Despite the order, the website remains accessible, although an imminent block by internet service providers is expected shortly. Therefore, local users face the loss of direct access to their market positions within the platform.
Global restrictions and the legal framework of blockchain-based betting
Under Portuguese regulations, only bets related to sports, casino games, and specific horse racing are permitted. The Polymarket prediction market, being based on real-world events and politics, is completely excluded from the permitted legal framework. Thus, Portugal joins a list of more than thirty nations that restrict or block access to this decentralized protocol.
On the other hand, the expansion of these platforms based on cryptocurrency represents a constant challenge for traditional regulators worldwide. Countries like France have chosen to limit their citizens to “view-only” mode to avoid legal infractions. However, the global nature of the protocol makes it difficult to apply effective sanctions beyond the geographic blocking of national IP addresses.
What does the future hold for prediction markets facing European regulatory pressure?
While other similar platforms are still accessible in the country, the regulator has made it clear that it will not tolerate unauthorized activities. The importance of this fact lies in the precedent it sets for other projects operating under the same technical premise. The SRIJ is expected to maintain extreme vigilance over compliance with the shutdown within the stipulated timeframe by law.
For investors and users, this situation highlights the regulatory risks inherent in prediction platforms that do not comply with local registrations. The transparency of the blockchain record allows authorities to track massive volumes, facilitating the identification of large-scale infractions. Therefore, the sector must adapt to national licensing requirements to ensure its operational continuity in Europe.
