Following regulatory approval from the CFTC, the return of Polymarket has positioned U.S. prediction markets as a strategic piece for companies such as Coinbase. According to Owen Lau, an analyst at Clear Street, this reopening will allow for the integration of direct engagement tools, fostering user loyalty in a highly competitive environment.
The platform, which was restricted in 2022, returns through an amended designation order, initially launching sports event contracts on American soil. This move represents a significant shift, making it easier for brokerages to connect their customers with regulated venues, while the incorporation of political and crypto markets is expected over time.
Likewise, Polymarket’s aggressive fee structure, with just 10 basis points for takers and zero for makers, challenges traditional operators in the region. Lau argues that these costs are the lowest in the sector, pressuring the revenue margins of competitors and signaling an unprecedented fee compression within event-based trading markets.
New legal challenges in the fragmented American geography
On the other hand, although federal approval provides clarity, regulatory risk persists unevenly at the state level across various jurisdictions. Recently, a Massachusetts judge granted an injunction against Kalshi, preventing the offer of sports contracts in that state, evidencing a legal fragmentation that could complicate the massive expansion of these financial instruments.
Similarly, states like Nevada and Maryland have issued unfavorable rulings, highlighting that prediction Blockchain faces a still uncertain administrative landscape in those specific areas. Nonetheless, Coinbase emerges as the ideal distribution partner, contributing more than one hundred million verified users to massify access to these regulated event contracts.
How will these markets transform the profitability of exchange platforms?
Since margins are tight, it is unlikely that these assets will become standalone profit centers during the near future for operators. In this way, they are expected to function primarily as retention mechanisms, helping to maintain subscriber activity through a seamless integration into the user interfaces of already established exchange applications.
Finally, the return of Polymarket marks the beginning of a maturity phase for the U.S. prediction markets sector despite local hurdles. It is anticipated that as the offering diversifies beyond sports, institutional adoption will grow steadily, consolidating event-based markets as a viable alternative for modern investors looking for new engagement tools.
