The cryptocurrency options expiry with a value of approximately 3 billion dollars occurs today, January 16, 2026. According to data from the Deribit platform, this event tests market conviction after the recent bullish breakout. Bitcoin dominates the day with 2.4 billion in contracts, while Ethereum contributes an additional 437 million dollars. The Bitcoin price remains firm today above the “max pain” level situated at 92,000 dollars.
Likewise, defensive sentiment prevails even though prices have recently surpassed key technical resistance levels in the industry. The put-to-call ratio currently stands at 1.26 for the leading digital currency of the sector today. Traders maintain hedges against potential sudden drops, which suggests persistent institutional caution in the current market. Therefore, volatility could increase significantly as contracts are closed or rolled over by participants.
On the other hand, analysts from Greeks.live highlight a notable divergence between the two largest digital assets. Bitcoin has managed to break out of its two-month consolidation, currently trading near 95,310 dollars per unit. In this way, the market focuses on the bullish momentum of Bitcoin, leaving Ethereum in a sideways range. For this reason, the attention of large capital seems to be focused almost exclusively on the leader.
Evolution of institutional positions against the volatility of the derivatives closing
Nonetheless, the derivatives market structure does not yet show a definitive and sustainable structurally bullish phase. Ethereum continues to struggle to overcome the 3,400 dollar barrier, trading near its max pain level today. Bitcoin block trades reached 1.7 billion dollars, representing more than 40% of the total daily trading volume. This figure contrasts with the mere 130 million moved in similar institutional trades within the Ethereum network.
Furthermore, volume in the futures markets has not accompanied the price rise in a very convincing way. Implied volatility has not rebounded substantially after the recent increase in the valuation of digital assets. Since the long-term outlook remains quite uncertain, investors prefer to maintain a tactical stance instead of directional bets. Thus, today’s cryptocurrency options expiry will act as a critical barometer for the immediate liquidity of the sector.
Will the 94,000 dollar support be able to withstand the pressure of the contract closing?
Therefore, a daily Bitcoin close above 94,304 dollars would validate the current technical retest for the asset. This scenario would provide the necessary momentum for the quote to finally seek the 100,000 dollar mark. However, if support fails, the price could fall back into the consolidation range of the previous months. So, investors must prepare for sharp movements during the coming hours of global trading activity.
However, after the expiry, the market tends to cool down while traders adjust their new strategic positions. The reduction of open interest will allow for a gradual stabilization of prices on the major exchange platforms. The conviction of buyers will be tested in an environment of lower leverage after the contract cleanup. In this way, the market will define if the recent rally has enough strength to sustain itself.
