Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of three US bitcoin miners, assigning Overweight ratings to Cipher Mining (CIFR) and TeraWulf (WULF) and an Underweight rating to Marathon Digital (MARA). The bank framed the recommendations around a shift in valuation towards miners as data center infrastructure rather than pure bitcoin bets.
Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on several companies operating at the intersection of bitcoin mining and digital infrastructure, with analyst Stephen Byrd leading the report. The core argument is that firms with established data-center footprints and long-term leases to creditworthy counterparties are increasingly being treated as infrastructure assets with more stable and predictable revenues.
Within that framework, the bank assigned a $38 price target to Cipher Mining and a $37 target to TeraWulf, both rated Overweight. Marathon Digital, by contrast, received an $8 target and an Underweight rating, reflecting its continued reliance on bitcoin mining margins.
The report highlighted Cipher’s ability to convert capacity into long-term contracted revenue. Morgan Stanley described a “clear path to REIT-like, long-term contracted cash flows,” attributing that trajectory to the company’s strategic positioning in the data-center business.
Market reaction and divergent views in Morgan Stanley
Markets responded swiftly following the initiation of coverage. Cipher shares rose roughly 12.4% to $16.51, while TeraWulf gained about 12.8% to $16.12. Marathon’s share price reaction was more uneven, underscoring ongoing investor uncertainty around its business model.
For TeraWulf, the bank emphasized its push into AI and high-performance computing data centers. The report pointed to strong commercial support, including increased backing from Google, which Morgan Stanley said meaningfully de-risks the company’s development pipeline.
Not all analysts agree with Morgan Stanley’s cautious stance on Marathon. Elsewhere on the sell side, Compass Point had previously upgraded MARA to Buy with a $30 price target, highlighting how sharply valuations can diverge depending on strategic assumptions.
For investors, the implications are practical. Companies that lock in long-dated leases with strong counterparties may see their risk-adjusted valuations improve as capital markets increasingly view them as infrastructure plays. Firms that remain heavily exposed to pure bitcoin mining economics, however, continue to face margin pressure from price volatility and halving cycles, factors that remain central to portfolio positioning decisions.
