Monero’s valuation has suffered a devastating 65% retreat since its January highs, currently sitting in a critical consolidation phase. According to recent technical reports, the Monero price faces the risk of a new capitulation, as the current market structure suggests that the definitive bottom has not yet been formed.
Despite a brief recovery attempt that took the asset toward 330 dollars, the appearance of a bear flag on the daily chart keeps investors on edge. This technical pattern, characterized by a vertical drop followed by a narrow ascending channel, usually precedes a continuation of the predominant negative trend in privacy criptocurrencies nowadays.
Weakness in exchange flows and lack of real accumulation
During the last week, net flows on exchange platforms have shown a worrying change, moving from capital outflows to net inflows of 768,000 dollars. This movement indicates that investors are using rebounds to liquidate positions, instead of accumulating the asset for a sustained long-term recovery within the current ecosystem’s framework.
Furthermore, open interest in derivatives markets has plummeted by 60%, reflecting a massive withdrawal of leverage and a clear risk aversion among traders. Therefore, the lack of conviction from active traders significantly limits any possibility of a “short squeeze” that could suddenly push the asset’s value toward much higher levels.
On the other hand, negative crossovers in exponential moving averages reinforce the thesis of a persistent deterioration in short-term momentum. The convergence of the 50-day EMA toward the 100-day EMA suggests that selling pressure continues to outweigh buying demand, keeping market control firmly in the hands of sellers.
Could the 150 dollar support level act as the definitive bottom for Monero?
If the current support at 314 dollars were to yield under current pressure, the path toward the 150 dollar target would be completely clear. This level, identified through Fibonacci retracements, represents a psychological demand zone where institutional buyers could reappear to stabilize the price after months of consecutive and painful drops.
However, to invalidate this pessimistic scenario, the asset would need to achieve a daily close above the critical resistance located at 350 dollars. Nevertheless, the general sentiment remains one of extreme caution, given that spot flow data shows no signs of aggressive absorption by large holders within the network.
The importance of this analysis lies in the identification of a distribution phase, where supply returns to exchanges constantly. Ultimately, the immediate future of the privacy coin will depend on its ability to defend current technical levels before the bear flag structure completes its projected execution.
