Monero’s price has entered a high volatility phase after retreating from its historical highs, currently trading at around 524 dollars. According to the latest reports, Monero technical indicators reflect significant caution due to a 20% drop in derivatives open interest recently. This reduction, which went from 272 to 217 million dollars, indicates that traders are closing positions amid uncertainty, avoiding maintaining unnecessary risks in the current market for digital assets.
Despite the short-term price resilience, the Chaikin Money Flow indicator has fallen below the zero line recently during the latest sessions. This technical move confirms that capital outflows are now dominating the asset, surpassing the accumulation efforts of both retail and institutional investors. On the other hand, the selling pressure could intensify significantly, as negative money flow often precedes prolonged weaknesses, testing the patience of the holders of this privacy-focused cryptocurrency.
The liquidation map shows that long positions are particularly exposed below the psychological support level of 500 dollars. A drop of just 3% below 489 dollars could trigger forced liquidations of 3.62 million dollars, accelerating a possible cascading fall toward much lower levels. Likewise, the imbalance between long and short positions increases the vulnerability of the asset, leaving the stage set for sharp movements if the overall market sentiment fails to stabilize soon.
Fibonacci support vulnerability in the face of weakening capital inflows
The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, located near 503 dollars, now acts as a critical support floor for the asset. Although this zone has served as a defense against recent pullbacks, the fragility of Monero technical indicators suggests that a breakdown is highly probable. If this level is lost, the price could slide quickly toward 450 dollars, invalidating hopes for an immediate recovery and forcing traders to seek much deeper liquidity zones to stabilize the price.
Nevertheless, funding rates remain positive, indicating that a portion of the market still expects a technical rebound soon. This persistence of optimists could momentarily slow down the current bearish momentum, provided that capital flow returns with enough strength to neutralize the constant sales. However, the lack of conviction among professional traders is evident, being a factor that limits the potential for a sustained upward move toward the resistance level of 560 dollars.
Will XMR manage to invalidate the bearish thesis and recover the 600 dollar zone?
A trend change will only be possible if trader optimism manages to overcome the growing external liquidation pressure. Under a bullish scenario, the asset could advance toward 606 dollars, erasing the losses of the last 72 hours and returning confidence to the global community. Otherwise, the market will continue to treat every rally as a selling opportunity, keeping the price on a downward trajectory until a solid accumulation floor is identified by experts.
Finally, Monero’s behavior in the coming days will define if the coin can maintain its status above the psychological mark. The market watches closely to see if buyers will defend the 500 dollar support with determination or if a general capitulation will occur. The combination of capital outflows and liquidation risk paints a complex picture, where only a massive institutional liquidity entry could save the asset from a much deeper technical correction.
