Monad price is trading near $0.021, a level that underscores the token’s early-stage volatility and sets the stage for a decisive move. The market faces a stark contrast: a technical pattern that projects a 64% upside against derivatives dynamics that could trigger roughly $50 million in long liquidations.
An inverse head-and-shoulders pattern underpins the bullish scenario; a daily close above $0.024 neckline would confirm this setup and target a climb to $0.040. Technical resistance could first meet the $0.029 zone, with the $0.035–$0.040 band presenting the next obstacle; mid-term forecasts for late December 2025 place Monad between $0.030 and $0.045.
Monad’s architecture is a core part of the bullish argument: the protocol uses a parallel Ethereum Virtual Machine and advertises throughput of 10,000 transactions per second with sub‑second finality, characteristics intended to reduce congestion for DeFi and high‑frequency DApps.
Institutional support is notable: $269 million raised via token sales and over $225 million in venture funding lend credibility to execution and ecosystem buildout. Longer-range analyst projections cited in market commentary extend to $0.20–$0.30 by 2030 and higher in subsequent years, contingent on sustained adoption.
Monad price downside risks: long squeeze, tokenomics and leverage
Derivatives data reveal a pronounced long bias: platforms report about $93.62 million in long liquidations versus $45.26 million in short liquidations, and models estimate roughly $50.34 million of cumulative long leverage could unwind if bearish momentum accelerates.
A breach below $0.020 would likely trigger cascading liquidations and could push the price toward $0.016, invalidating the bullish pattern.
Fully Diluted Value (FDV) refers to the token’s market capitalization if all tokens were in circulation; a high FDV with a low circulating float concentrates risk around unlock events. Crypto veteran Arthur Hayes warned that Monad resembles a “high‑risk VC coin” with “high FDV, low‑float” dynamics and suggested a severe drawdown once insider tokens unlock. Monad’s total supply is cited at 100 billion tokens with a substantial portion under vesting, though the precise schedule and market impact of those unlocks remain unquantified.
Monad’s near‑term trajectory hinges on a technical breakout above $0.024 versus the potential for a $50 million long‑liquidation cascade if key support fails; the protocol’s 10,000 TPS parallel EVM and large institutional funding shape the fundamental upside, while tokenomics and leverage define the downside.
