MicroStrategy’s short-term prospects for its stock (MSTR) turned on Bitcoin ability to hold a psychological support band between $88.000 and $92.000, after the firm completed a $1.25 billion purchase of 13.627 BTC at an average price of $91.519.
Failure of Bitcoin to remain above that band threatened to compress the valuation premium assigned to MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet and to put additional downside pressure on the stock, which faced a technical support near $149.
The band emerged as a focal point because it closely matched the blended cost basis for MicroStrategy’s most recent transactions—about $91.300—making the range both a tactical buying zone and a marker for investor sentiment.
The company’s strategy of recurring Bitcoin accumulation effectively turned MSTR into a leveraged proxy for BTC: upward moves in Bitcoin amplified gains for the equity, and declines amplified losses.
Analysts and market commentary noted two offsetting price floors. First, the immediate technical support for MSTR sat near $149; a breakdown there would likely accelerate bearish positioning. Second, MicroStrategy’s broader, long-term average cost basis for its total BTC holdings was estimated around $75.353 per BTC.
Implications for investors and Bitcoin market structure
MicroStrategy’s approach—issuing equity and using proceeds to buy BTC—adds layers of market risk beyond pure Bitcoin exposure. Share dilution is a structural effect of the strategy and increases sensitivity to shifts in investor appetite for a Bitcoin proxy that uses corporate equity as the acquisition vehicle. Market participants therefore watch both on-chain price action and the company’s equity technicals simultaneously.
That deeper average has been cited as a potential institutional floor that could prompt additional accumulation if prices fell meaningfully below it.
Investors are now watching whether MicroStrategy continues to acquire BTC in the current band and whether Bitcoin can sustain that level; the company’s next liquidity and reporting events will serve as practical tests of the thesis, with outcomes likely to shape sentiment and MSTR’s premium to its net BTC exposure.
