Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures, recently noted that the current Bitcoin market cycle follows historical patterns that suggest a deeper correction ahead. During his speech at Consensus Hong Kong 2026, the investor dismissed optimistic forecasts that placed the bottom at $80,000, calling them premature given the fragility of the global financial environment this Thursday morning.
According to Terpin, the post-halving bubble burst exactly when expected, in line with the temporal arc of previous cycles. In this way, the market could face more pain, ensuring that the price of Bitcoin visits $40,000 before establishing a durable bottom that allows for a genuine and sustainable institutional accumulation phase in the following months.
The historical pattern of halving and price correction
The current market structure, which is based on the reduction of rewards for miners, reinforces the scarcity of the digital asset. However, Terpin argues that the speculative exhaustion phase typically lasts between nine and eleven months. Therefore, the current decline is a natural process, allowing the post-halving bubble to fully deflate before starting a new long-term upward momentum for the industry.
Likewise, the analyst drew a direct parallel with the 2021 cycle, where highs and lows occurred with amazing chronological precision. This consistency in the Blockchain suggests that macroeconomic forces have not altered the asset’s four-year rhythm. Therefore, relying on immediate rebounds is risky, as history points to a final capitulation necessary to clear the excess of leverage from the system.
On the other hand, the “digital gold” narrative is being tested as the market seeks a balance between decreasing supply and variable demand. Since the currency’s inflation is reduced every four years, the fundamental value remains intact, but investor psychology must be readjusted in the face of the possibility of seeing price levels that many considered definitively surpassed during this year.
Is it possible for Bitcoin to break the 40,000 dollar barrier?
Therefore, Terpin insists that the market is “exactly where it should be” according to the metrics of time elapsed since the last halving event. Currently, the sentiment of complacency among those who expected a bottom at $60,000 is what most concerns the expert. In this way, a drop toward the lower range would act as the “final point of pain” for the entire ecosystem.
Regarding the implications for investors, a drop of such magnitude would represent a historical buying opportunity for large capital holders. However, for the retail sector, extreme volatility could generate panic, ensuring that the exit of weak capital strengthens the base of long-term holders. This phenomenon is an intrinsic characteristic of every successful Bitcoin market cycle throughout history.
Furthermore, the precision of these cycles, which sometimes only vary by a few days, lends credibility to Terpin’s thesis. By observing how the market has behaved since its genesis, the predictability of bullish exhaustion becomes a vital tool. Therefore, avoiding unjustified optimism is key to surviving the contraction phases that define the maturation of the global cryptographic industry.
Looking toward the future, the formation of a durable bottom will be the necessary catalyst for the next major expansion. While the market digests these warnings, strategic patience will be the virtue most valued among participants. The technological resilience of the network guarantees that, after the winter, value emerges with greater strength, marking the start of a new chapter in digital financial history.
