The price of Bitcoin on Saturday fell by 8% and skeptics immediately appeared to say – "the rally is over." Nevertheless, many analysts are optimistic, writes Cryptobtcmining.com .
To date, the main cryptocurrency has decreased by 32% compared with the maximum of 2019 ($ 13,739) and most of the short-term forecasts remain bearish.
Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has formed two peaks at $ 13,739 and $ 13,177, and then dropped to about $ 9,600. Most traders expect that the price of bitcoin will be adjusted to Fibonacci levels of 61.8% and 50%, which is near the gap of CME futures, bringing the price of bitcoin to the range from $ 8,500 to $ 7,500.
Traders also noted that bitcoin fell out of an expanding wedge, in which the price rose from $ 4,000 to a maximum of 2019, finally breaking the parabolic trend:
So, the short-term forecast is bearish, but analysts are extremely optimistic about the long-term forecast of Bitcoin price. Let's look at a few key factors that they point out.
The percentage of inactive Bitcoin wallets reached a new maximum
Earlier this week, analyst firm Coin Metrics published a report showing that the number of inactive Bitcoin addresses reached a new maximum of 21%.
Analysts say that in the last five, the number of bitcoins that did not move in the blockchain has increased significantly (coins falling into this category were at the same address from 180 days to 2 years). This suggests that more and more people perceive Bitcoin as a store of value.
But not everyone supports this conclusion. Adamant Capital's cryptocurrency fund partner Tuur Demeester says:
Not sure that 5 years without updating the cold storage method is bitcoins for long term. Looks like most of these coins are lost.
However, a more detailed analysis of the chart shows that the number of inactive coins for 180-day and annual periods increased markedly compared with longer periods.
The beginning of a new bull market coincides with the surrender of miners
On Saturday, cryptanalyst PlanB presented a rather interesting graph:
The start of a new bull market coincides with the capitulation of miners , and the price of Bitcoin tends to increase by a factor of 100 from this point on. PlanB writes:
“We are faced with the bottom of the complexity of the miners' capitulation in December 2011 ($ 4.6), May 2015 ($ 230) and December 2018 ($ 3896). The price continues to rise from these lows to a new ATH of around 100x, which implies a continuing uptrend to $ 370,000 ATH. ”
Nevertheless, with a more careful study of the schedule, you can see a decrease in the growth of Bitcoin prices from each subsequent rally. Based on this, it is possible to predict that the current bull market may reach a maximum of about 1000%.
Cointelegraph turned to PlanB to clarify this observation. He explained:
“This may be a sign of lower bitcoin market volatility and maturity. Now for the price movement in the market requires more money than in 2010-2011. But we can easily repeat 100x again. ”
Now the current bitcoin price movement reflects previous cycles. Since reaching the minimum at the end of 2018, the digital asset has already grown by 300%.
The agiotage before bitcoin halving can push the price to $ 20 000
A few weeks ago, the popular cryptanalyst Filb Filb said that, despite the current correction, the price of Bitcoin will not return to the minimum of 2018.
Filb Filb noted that miners sell bitcoins in accordance with market demand every time profits are higher than mining costs, but he expects them to “limit sales” as the halving approaches to cause a new bubble.
As for the future price of bitcoin, most analysts see a short-term consolidation (which will reduce the hype), after which the price of bitcoin can return to $ 20,000.
From a technical point of view, the most likely scenario may include a continuation of the decline to $ 7,500. This will be followed by a long period of consolidation, as re-accumulation will occur.
Given the projected inflow of retail investors and the launch of services for institutional investors from companies such as Bakkt , TD Ameritrade and Fidelity Investments, we may well see new historical highs of the Bitcoin price.
Publication date 07/30/2019
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