Researchers at DataLight analytical platform found an interesting correlation between the growth of Bitcoin and the complexity of its production. So, in 2019, an increase in complexity three times preceded a sharp upward price movement.
Since the beginning of this year, the complexity of mining has increased by 33%, and the price of BTC – by 100%.
There are three key hypotheses regarding the correlation between bitcoin and hashrate / complexity. The first one says that the hash rate and complexity grow after the price, as more and more miners are motivated to receive rewards. Another theory, a staunch supporter of which is TV host and trader Max Kaiser, says the opposite – the price follows the hash rate and complexity.
Three recent Bitcoin Difficiencies in #Bitcoin prices in 2019. https://t.co/nk8It6jxZX pic.twitter.com/RTojDCXDOo
– DataLight (@DataLightMe) May 15, 2019
The latter hypothesis states that the ratio between the value of BTC and the hashrate / complexity is determined by a power law . According to her apologists, you can develop a formula for determining the price of Bitcoin, if you trace the history of the ratio of this indicator and complexity.
Regardless of which of the theories mentioned is correct, one can agree that a certain correlation does exist, and investors should take into account changes in the complexity of mining, making decisions, they say in DataLight.
Note that the complexity of mining can decrease with a decrease in the BTC rate, for example, on May 2, the bitcoin hash rate reached 58.1 EH / s, but then adjusted to the level of 49.6 EH / s.
Publication date 17/05/2019
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