Hedera plunged sharply in early December, with HBAR falling about 10% to $0.1308 on December 1, 2025 as the broader crypto market turned risk-off. The move breached a recent support band and coincided with an extraordinary surge in trading volume, signalling intensified selling pressure for the token.
HBAR’s December 1 decline followed an 18% weekly pullback and broke the $0.162 level that had provided month-long support, according to Bitget. The sell-off unfolded alongside a volume spike to 241.5 million tokens—roughly 338% above the 24‑hour average—anomalous activity market observers linked to institutional selling. At other times the asset’s 24‑hour trading volume showed variability, slipping to about $867.41 million in periods of lower activity, illustrating episodic flows rather than a steady trend.
Data from market analytics show Hedera has been trading with an exceptionally high correlation to Bitcoin (0.97), making HBAR vulnerable when BTC weakens. Price action has consolidated inside a falling-wedge formation that, in the cited analysis, carries a higher statistical probability of downside than an upside breakout (roughly 67% versus 21%). Momentum indicators reinforced the negative bias: daily MACD and ADX signalled sell conditions, the four‑hour RSI registered near 45.7 while the daily RSI neared 34.7, and the Chaikin Money Flow hit an eight‑month low, all consistent with heavy capital outflows. Open interest in derivatives also dropped, by about 8.6% to $407.69 million, reflecting reduced speculative leverage.
The technical read suggests immediate support levels are under pressure and that downside targets could extend further unless buying interest returns. By contrast, reclaiming several short-term resistance bands would be required to stabilise the trend.
Market move and the volume anomaly of Hedera
Despite the technical weakness, selective fundamental developments persisted. Institutional product activity has been notable: one report flagged Vanguard’s launch of an HBAR investment vehicle and prior approval of another HBAR ETF that attracted meaningful net inflows. Separately, a sovereign initiative to explore tokenising a national real‑estate registry on Hedera was cited as an example of potential real‑world adoption. Market sentiment metrics remain stretched to the downside—the Fear & Greed Index registered roughly 25/100—while on‑chain and flow data show a preference among some investors for spot accumulation over leveraged derivatives.
HBAR’s near-term trajectory appears dominated by technical momentum and macro-driven correlation to bitcoin, even as incremental institutional and utility-oriented developments continue. The market will be watching ETF flow reports and progress on real‑world tokenisation projects as the next verifiable catalysts that could reshape investor conviction.
