Hedera Hashgraph’s HBAR faces a sharp technical threat after a confirmed bear-flag breakdown that projects a potential 28% decline, placing targets near $0.079–$0.068. The immediate picture is defined by weakening momentum indicators and collapsing liquidity, while isolated institutional and infrastructure developments offer a plausible counterweight to the downside.
A confirmed bear flag — a consolidation that resolves lower and often forecasts a measured move — puts HBAR at risk of a roughly 28% correction toward $0.079–$0.068, according to chart-based analysis cited by market reports. The token has recently breached near-term support at $0.141 and faces further threat to $0.12; an earlier breach around $0.16 has reinforced bearish scenarios that reference the April low of $0.1248 as a nearer floor. The 200-day simple moving average sits near $0.1995 and functions as a medium-term structural reference.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) and MACD have turned weaker, signaling declining buy-side liquidity and fading momentum; the MFI measures money flowing in and out of an asset, while the MACD tracks momentum and trend changes over two moving averages.
Conversely, some reversal clues have emerged: a double-bottom formation and a recent golden cross were identified, and the RSI is hinting at consolidation rather than trend continuation — collectively suggesting a possible stabilisation if buyers reappear. A decisive breakout above $0.23 would invalidate the immediate bearish thesis and underpin a more constructive technical outlook.
Technical outlook for HBAR price
Market mood is extreme: social sentiment readings have collapsed by nearly 98% since late October, and the broader crypto fear gauge is described as “Extreme Fear,” indicating pronounced retail disengagement, according to reporting. Exchange outflows have contracted by more than 92%, and futures open interest has collapsed, pointing to evaporating opportunistic liquidity and lower hedging demand. Dwindling ETF-related demand is also cited as a contributor to the current liquidity squeeze.
Despite technical weakness, several structural factors could act as an outlier to the bearish setup. Speculation over potential spot HBAR ETFs — with firms like Nasdaq and Grayscale mentioned in market coverage — remains a possible source of fresh capital. Hedera’s governing council and partner roster, which includes Google, IBM, Boeing, DTCC, Archax, NASA and NVIDIA, underpins enterprise credibility and long-term utility narratives.
The integration of Wrapped BTC onto Hedera, enabled by firms such as BitGo, BiT Global and LayerZero, adds institutional-grade Bitcoin liquidity to Hedera’s DeFi ecosystem and expands HBAR’s utility beyond speculative trading.
The near-term risk for HBAR is materially skewed to the downside while technicals and liquidity metrics remain weak; however, extreme sentiment exhaustion and potential institutional catalysts present a credible path for a counter-trend recovery.
