Hedera’s HBAR traded narrowly above a critical support zone around $0.102 as weak sentiment and a cluster of bearish technical signals pushed the token toward a higher probability of downside continuation. Market data from mid- to late January 2026 showed severe negative flows and chart patterns that amplified the risk of a decisive breakdown.
The immediate concern is the combination of collapsing sentiment and technical deterioration that, has left HBAR exposed to lower demand areas unless buying pressure returns. A long-term descending triangle identified on the daily chart by Jan. 20, 2026 added to the downside bias.
The Chaikin Money Flow moved into deeply negative territory, signalling diminished buying pressure and meaningful capital outflows from large holders. Sentiment indicators deteriorated sharply: a reported 94% sentiment decline and a Fear & Greed Index reading of 20 on Jan. 6, placed the market in ‘Extreme Fear’.
Momentum oscillators offered mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index had been in oversold territory on Dec. 15, and was observed in a neutral band (roughly 39–47) as of Jan. 16, pointing to short-term indecision rather than clear bullish strength. A modest bullish divergence appeared in the Money Flow Index and short exposure in derivatives contracted as of Dec. 29, but those signs were limited relative to the dominant outflows.
Support, HBAR resistance and downside scenarios
The immediate support band sat near $0.102–$0.113. If that area failed, analysts pointed to a chain of lower supports and potential crash targets that market participants were monitoring.
Bearish pattern math implied roughly a 31% continuation path from the pattern, and a prior 40% decline after the Canary ETF launch underscored HBAR’s sensitivity to shifts in speculative and institutional demand.
Capital leaving the Hedera ecosystem, documented on Jan. 20, signalled a lack of conviction among larger holders and amplified downside pressure for traders reliant on institutional inflows. Overhead resistance near $0.19 remained the threshold required to counter the prevailing bearish narrative.
Investors are now watching whether HBAR can hold the $0.102 area and whether buying interest can push the token back above $0.154 and ultimately $0.19; a sustained move above those levels would be needed to shift market bias. Until that happens, the confluence of weak sentiment, negative money flow and a bearish triangle suggests caution for market participants exposed to HBAR.
