Expert analyses published flagged a concentrated short-liquidation cluster of roughly $4,5 million at and above the $0.114 price level for Hedera (HBAR). That concentration of leverage has created a flashpoint that is shaping immediate positioning and volatility expectations.
The HBAR analyses described a scenario in which a rally that reclaims the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement as support and breaks through $0.115 would likely trigger the $4,5 million cascade of forced short covering. That squeeze dynamic would amplify momentum and could push prices toward layered resistance levels cited by the research — $0.120, $0.125 and as high as $0.141 — as shorts scramble to close positions.
This outcome was presented as a classic leverage squeeze: even in the presence of bearish macro signals, concentrated short exposure around a tight price band can produce outsized moves when the band is breached. The short-covering scenario therefore increases intraday and near-term volatility and can invalidate bearish technicals if buying pressure sustains above the key band.
Market participants are weighing a narrow path: a decisive move above $0.114–$0.115 could force heavy short covering, while failure to hold $0.114 risks cascading long liquidations and accelerated downside.
Downside clusters, macro flow and liquidation risk
On the flip side, the same reporting quantified downside liquidation clusters tied to weaker price action. A break below the immediate $0.114 support was estimated to trigger about $1,07 million in long liquidations, while a deeper slide beneath $0.112 could catalyze another roughly $2,71 million in forced exits. Those cascades would reinforce selling pressure and deepen any downtrend.
Broader flow indicators highlighted in the material painted a stressed market backdrop: Chaikin Money Flow readings were reported below zero, Money Flow Index values sat in negative territory, and the RSI had registered overbought readings at times. The combination of persistent capital outflows and mixed flow signals was described as raising the bar for a sustained upside break, since fresh buying would be required to overcome prevailing outflow pressure.
The analysis stressed that these figures reflect concentrated leverage rather than fundamentals, so price moves could be amplified independently of longer-term network or adoption metrics. Leverage increases both realized gains and losses, and forced exits can create momentum that compounds short-term moves.
Investors are now turning their attention to whether HBAR can reclaim the 23.6% Fibonacci level and hold above $0.115, which will serve as the test for the short-covering thesis; failure to do so would leave the market exposed to the quantified long-liquidation clusters and further downside pressure.
