Goldman Sachs projects an 11% return for global equities during the current year 2026. Peter Oppenheimer, the firm’s chief strategist, noted that Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has recently turned negative. The report highlights that corporate earnings growth will drive global stock markets during the next twelve months.
On one hand, the banking entity estimates global gross domestic product growth of 2.8% for this year. Goldman Sachs projects global returns of eleven percent including dividends for investors. Likewise, the Federal Reserve is expected to implement moderate monetary easing policies over the coming months. The global economy will expand across all regions in a solid and steady manner.
Furthermore, analysts suggest that this year’s gains will be driven by fundamental earnings growth. Unlike 2025, the current rally will not rely exclusively on high valuations in the technology sector. Corporate profits will be the main engine of growth in international indices. Therefore, the stock market has officially entered a phase of late-cycle optimism.
The structural change redefining the behavior of traditional and digital assets
On the other hand, CryptoQuant data reveals an unusual trend within the cryptocurrencies ecosystem currently. Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 stands at negative levels of -0.02 at the start of this cycle. Bitcoin shows a historical disconnection from the markets of traditional New York securities. This suggests that the digital asset is following its own independent price trajectory.
Likewise, structural factors such as spot Bitcoin ETFs have transformed institutional demand this year. The rotation of liquidity towards commodities and precious metals has also influenced this behavior. Bitcoin moves away from being a risk asset directly linked to stocks. Therefore, long-term investors are dominating the internal supply dynamics of the network.
Will Bitcoin be able to maintain its independence if stock volatility suddenly increases?
However, Oppenheimer warns that stock valuations are at historically high levels worldwide. The stock market enters a phase of optimism that could generate additional price volatility. Nevertheless, a significant drop in stocks is unlikely without a clear economic recession. Geographic diversification will be fundamental to obtain returns adjusted to risk factors.
Thus, the divergence between Bitcoin and equities marks a milestone for global investors. While stocks seek measured growth, digital gold responds to its own scarcity catalysts. Changes in digital market behavior are now structural and permanent. Bitcoin’s independent path reinforces its role as a unique global reserve asset.
