Galaxy Digital’s research arm outlined a long-term bullish scenario for Bitcoin, forecasting a rise to $250.000 by the end of 2027 while flagging substantial uncertainty for 2026. The firm tied the 2027 target to institutional adoption and macro tailwinds, but warned that near-term political and macro risks could produce a wide range of price outcomes.
Galaxy Digital’s projection for $250.000 rests on three core arguments: growing institutional access, a potential easing of global monetary policy that would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, and a narrative of Bitcoin increasingly acting as a macro asset similar to gold.
The firm also noted a trend of declining long-term volatility, which it said could broaden appeal to more risk-averse allocators. Those factors together form the analytical basis for the 2027 target and imply a structural demand case rather than a purely momentum-driven rally.
2026 uncertainty and market signals
The firm’s research lead, Alex Thorn, described 2026 as “too chaotic to predict,” citing an overlap of macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical and political events and large capital flows into artificial intelligence infrastructure as sources of volatility.
Options pricing provides a quantitative view of that dispersion: market-implied levels suggested an even probability of mid‑2026 outcomes near $70.000 or $130.000, and year‑end splits between roughly $50.000 and $250.000. Options pricing reflects market-implied probabilities for future price levels and can show wide variance when traders lack consensus.
Galaxy Digital highlighted a concrete downside threshold: downside risk remained until Bitcoin sustained trading above the $100.000–$105.000 range. That technical guardrail was presented as the condition that would reduce the immediate tail risk identified for 2026.
The firm’s dual message is clear: structural, medium-term upside tied to adoption and macro easing, alongside pronounced short-term uncertainty driven by policy, politics and capital rotation.
