Ethereum currently trades between $3,800 and $4,000, with a triple bottom visible on the four-hour chart. A sustained push and hold above $4,000 would point to stages near $4,280–$4,340, $4,520, and ultimately the prior record area close to $5,000. Fund managers and balance-sheet holders are watching because the move will shape block liquidity and capital allocation to crypto.
The floor for Ethereum that held three times runs from $3,750 to $3,800, while the ceiling to clear sits between $3,950 and $4,000, overlapping the 50-period exponential moving average. A daily finish above $4,000 on rising volume would open the road to $4,280, and a print above $4,340 — the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement — would provide the final green light, also exposing $4,520 and the $4,960–$5,000 window.
Flows, headwinds, and scenarios
Data indicate Ethereum-backed ETFs attracted $1.39 billion last week, extending a multi-week inflow streak. FXLeaders notes two small public firms — SharpLink Gaming and Bitmine Immersion Technologies — shifted part of their treasury cash into ETH, purchases that add to the bid and support the breakout case.
Large wallets sold roughly 140,000 ETH after October 20, worth about $550 million. Order-book data show thick sell shelves: 1.06 million ETH between $3,955–$4,015 and 1.33 million between $4,270–$4,314. Futures open interest fell 29% as traders cut risk on geopolitical headlines — fewer open contracts don’t halt rallies but allow sharper two-way swings.
A clean break above $4,340 would likely pull in more institutional buyers and draw regulator notice. If price slips back under $4,000, the chart points to $3,500 where the 200-day simple average sits, and a weekly close beneath $3,700 would erase the bullish shape, risking a deeper slide.
The next clear checkpoint is the Fusaka code push on December 3; day-by-day closes around $4,000 will show whether the triple bottom evolves into a longer climb.
