The Ethereum price (ETH) has experienced a sharp correction this week, falling more than 7.5% amid a risk-off sentiment in the crypto market. The drop triggered a breakdown from a symmetrical triangle pattern, a bearish signal that now tests an ascending trendline. This trendline is considered the last defense for the bulls before a potential deeper correction.
The Technical Battle for ETH Support
The main warning sign for technical analysts is the downside breakdown of the “symmetrical triangle” pattern that had been forming. Typically, this breakdown suggests a continuation of the short-term bearish trend. Calculations based on this pattern (a “measured move”) point to a potential price target near $3,560.
This would represent an additional 15% drop from current levels. Several market analysts agree with this short-term bearish outlook. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe has noted on his social media that he expects the Ethereum price to seek support in the $3,550 to $3,750 zone. This range closely aligns with the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA), a key indicator currently sitting around $3,685.
The Ascending Trendline: The Ultimate Support?
Despite the triangle breakdown, the situation is not entirely lost for the bulls. The Ethereum price is currently “clinging” to a much more significant support: an ascending trendline that has been in effect since April. Historically, this trendline has been a crucial inflection point for ETH.
Each time the price has touched this dynamic support in the past, it has preceded massive rallies of 90% to 125%. For this reason, investors are watching this level with extreme attention over the next few days. Defending this zone is vital to keeping the mid-term bullish market structure alive.
Conflicting Scenarios: From Deep Correction to New Highs
The Ethereum market is at a crossroads with two radically opposed scenarios. If selling pressure continues and the Ethereum price decisively breaks the ascending trendline, the bearish target of $3,560 becomes highly probable. This would confirm the dominance of the bears in the short term.
Conversely, if the historical support holds, the bullish scenario would reactivate. The first target would be a recovery above the 50-day EMA (near $4,250). A sustained close above that level could propel ETH toward the upper part of the former triangle, in the $4,600 to $4,700 range.
In a longer-term analysis, some analysts using the Wyckoff Accumulation method suggest this drop is just a “Last Point of Support” (LPS). If this theory is validated, the Ethereum price might be completing an accumulation phase before a sustained bullish move, which sets an ambitious target of $7,000 by 2025.
Critical Days for the Second-Largest Cryptocurrency
The Ethereum price faces decisive days. The technical battle is being fought between the bearish signal of the symmetrical triangle breakdown and the bullish hope of the historical support at the ascending trendline. The “de-risking” sentiment dominating the general cryptocurrency market is exerting significant pressure on ETH.
The resolution of this technical compression will define the market’s direction for the coming weeks. Investors must closely monitor the price action around the current trendline, as its defense or breach will be the catalyst for Ethereum’s next major move.
