The digital asset market faces a new wave of bearish pressure this Monday, after the Ethereum price confirmed a severe technical breakdown by losing more than 6% in the last 24 hours. According to the analysis presented by Ananda Banerjee, this move validates a bearish continuation pattern known as a “bear flag,” opening the door to a much deeper correction. The breakdown of the rising channel in which the asset was trading has activated alarming technical targets, placing the next potential floor near $2,140 dollars.
The hard data is overwhelming, showing that the second-largest coin in the market has lost nearly 27% in the last 30 days. The formation of this bear flag, preceded by an initial drop of 28.39% that formed the “pole,” mathematically suggests an identical extension of losses. Furthermore, on-chain metrics from Glassnode reinforce this negative outlook, indicating that there are no immediate solid technical supports that can halt the descent before reaching the projected zone.
Will long-term holders be able to stop the bleeding of the current market?
On the other hand, the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) metric for long-term holders offers a worrying historical context. This signal has been downtrending since August 22, implying that veteran investors are seeing their unrealized profits shrink and their conviction weaken. The current NUPL level is dangerously approaching the six-month low recorded in June, when the indicator touched 0.28. If history repeats itself and NUPL retests that bottom, the implied drawdown from local highs would coincide perfectly with the 28% technical target.
However, the situation worsens when observing the cost basis distribution heatmap. The Ethereum price has already pierced the $2,840 level, leaving behind its strongest on-chain demand wall, where over 3.5 million ETH had been accumulated. By losing this defense zone, sellers have taken full control, exposing lower support levels at $2,690 and $2,560. If weakness persists, the market could slide rapidly towards $2,260, an area that barely holds above the final breakdown target of the bear flag.
To conclude, the outlook suggests that the correction may not be over and investors should prepare for extended volatility. To invalidate this bearish thesis, a miraculous rebound reclaiming $2,990 and nullifying the flag structure would be necessary, something that currently seems unlikely without new catalysts. If current conditions hold, the convergence between technical patterns and holder data points to the $2,140 zone potentially becoming the next cycle bottom for these cryptocurrencies.
