Dogecoin (DOGE) broke the key $0.18 support in Dogecoin this Tuesday, falling to $0.1740. This decline, which notably diverges from the broader market’s strength, is due to intense selling pressure. On-chain data from the Santiment platform reveals that whales (large holders) dumped 440 million tokens in just 72 hours, dictating the asset’s current trajectory.
The massive sell-off was executed by a specific group of investors. Wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million DOGE collectively reduced their stake. Their total supply share dropped from 15.51% to 15.15%. This liquidation represents one of the largest mid-tier whale sell-offs in recent months.
Furthermore, the technical breakdown accelerated at 03:00 UTC. At that moment, trading volume spiked to 1.10 billion tokens. This figure is 183% above the 24-hour average. Recovery attempts failed, as resistance hardened near $0.1870 after three failed rebound attempts throughout the day.
Most concerning for investors is Dogecoin’s divergence. While Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies posted gains, DOGE extended its losses. This suggests that institutional flows are determining the price of DOGE, rather than general market sentiment. Analysts interpret the high intraday volatility, approximately 7.3%, not as panic selling. Instead, they see it as a clear structural repositioning by major players.
Is Dogecoin on the verge of a massive crash or is this a bear trap?
Technically, Dogecoin is at a binary inflection point. The key $0.18 support in Dogecoin is not just a structural pivot. It also represents the lower boundary of the ascending channel that has been in place since mid-August. Defending this level is, therefore, crucial for the medium-term bullish thesis.
On the other hand, the bearish threat is severe if the price remains below $0.18. Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted the gravity of the situation. A sustained failure at this level opens the risk of an accelerated drop toward the main accumulation cluster. This major support is located at $0.07, where 18.6% of the total supply (28.3 billion DOGE) last transacted.
The short-term outlook hinges on the battle for $0.18. Ali Martinez himself summarized the scenario: “DOGE’s fate could hinge on this level.” A successful defense could ignite a recovery toward $0.26 or even $0.33. However, traders warn that sustained price action below $0.18 would invalidate the bullish thesis from October. Although whale selling pressure seemed to stabilize into the close, the structural breakdown is already confirmed.
