Currently, we are seeing the longest “bearish” market in the history of Bitcoin and, as a result, cryptocurrency as a whole. To find out how long this would take, Julia Hörst of Breaker Magazine spoke with several representatives of the cryptoindustry:
- Jimmy Song, a bitcoin developer;
- Jake Yok-Payette, Decred Founder and CEO of Company Zero;
- Travis Kling, founder and CIO of Ikigai Asset Management.
How long will the bear market last?
Jimmy Song: I have no idea. It will last until many misunderstandings are crossed out (read: go bankrupt).
Jake Yokom-Payette: In the entire history of cryptocurrencies, there were several “bullish” races with intervals from one to three years between each. I believe that the next “bullish” period is likely to begin in 9–15 months. If the fiat financial system faces a long-awaited recession after 2008, this could adversely affect the cryptocurrency market.
Travis Kling: Cryptozyme will last until demand exceeds supply. In the current market environment it is quite obvious that there is an excess amount of cryptocurrencies relative to demand. New facts and circumstances change this balance every day. If a series of facts and circumstances arise relating to the price or something else, this will lead to the fact that demand exceeds supply. This can happen in the second quarter. Or in the fourth. Maybe in 2020.
Are there any good strategies for surviving a bear market?
Song: Invest only in what you believe will be a source of income in five years.
Yokom-Payette: Do not buy a lot of cryptocurrency in a single transaction. Distribute your purchases by time intervals so that you can calculate the average cost and avoid the psychological pressure associated with a large purchase at the same price. If you have a cryptocurrency project, remain modest during a bear market and hope that it will end soon. We work in Decred.
Kling: For a cryptocurrency investor, experiencing this recession should be based on patience, objectivity, vigilance and flexibility. We must understand the market cycle and make investment decisions in accordance with what can be profitable, risk-adjusted.
How much does it bother you?
Song: No worries at all. Nothing fundamental has changed, at least for Bitcoin. On the other hand, everything else looks very vulnerable.
Yokom-Payette: The fundamentals of cryptocurrency have remained almost static since the launch of Bitcoin in early 2009, so I don’t worry about the long-term prospects of the industry. In Decred, we can work for a long time on self-financing, so even long-lived “bears” are unlikely to seriously harm us.
Kling: We are extremely optimistic. But for shorter periods, we are not very sure what exactly is waiting for us. To change everything, you need more losses. More closed cryptobirth and projects. More liquidated funds. More caught scammers. More unsuccessful tokensale. More "dead crypt."
Will the adoption of cryptocurrency stimulate the next bull market or the adoption is not a necessary condition?
Song: Demand is always driven by a bull market, but this is not what people usually think of as "accepting." Bitcoin is a good store of value, and I expect this to be the cause of the next wave, whenever it happens.
Yokom-Payette: It is difficult to say what drives the “bull” markets, except for the collective psychological state of its participants. The development of micropayment channels (Lightning Network), for example, will make it possible to implement many new applications for cryptocurrency, which is likely to lead to an increase in its popularity.
Kling: Price leads to acceptance. The market is an effective mechanism . We will not see tomorrow some new decentralized application with 20 million users, until it sees the market, and does not adjust the price accordingly.
Publication date 06.02.2019
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