Coinbase Global shares rose after investors interpreted recent weakness as a buying opportunity, even as the platform reported a substantial quarterly loss.
The results for the fourth quarter of 2025 highlighted a key point: Coinbase’s earnings remain highly sensitive to spot trading volumes. Consumer transaction revenue fell by approximately 45%, contributing to the company’s valuation dropping below $1.8 billion.
The stock entered the report down nearly 41% in the previous month. However, after the release, the performance was less linear than expected. Shares rose almost 9% in pre-market trading and advanced around 2.8% in after-hours trading, suggesting that some of the pessimism had already been priced in.
This sequence reflected a clear division between investors who opted to reduce their exposure and dip-buyers who bet on a potential market bottom. In other words, the report did not dispel structural concerns, but it did reignite the valuation debate.
Coinbase target review
Much of the reaction was also influenced by the company’s own capital decisions. Coinbase repurchased approximately $1.7 billion worth of shares and added Bitcoin to its treasury. For its proponents, these measures demonstrate long-term conviction and help mitigate dilution in a volatile environment.
Meanwhile, analysts adjusted their models with varying nuances. Monness Crespi downgraded its rating to “Sell” for the second time and lowered its price target to $120. Needham cut its target to $230 from $290, while Piper Sandler lowered it to $270 from $350. Benchmark, for its part, reduced its target to $267 from $421, although it highlighted the increase in trading volume and market share in 2025, as well as growth in derivatives and stablecoins.
Beyond the specific quarter, the strategy of evolving into a “one-stop shop” was cited as a key driver for reducing reliance on volatile spot trading. Furthermore, several market participants noted that the company’s strong balance sheet provides it with the necessary leverage to navigate a prolonged period of weakness in the crypto environment.
In the short term, traders will be watching to see if the buying-driven rally on the dip can be sustained. In the longer term, however, attention will be focused on whether growth in derivatives and the expansion of the stablecoin business consistently offset the contraction in retail trading.
