Citi announced a change in its forecast for Coinbase Global, lowering its 12-month outlook from $505 to $400. The main reason for this is that the company’s stock has fallen 65% from its all-time high, suggesting that its trading power is weakening and that regulatory pressure in the United States is hurting it.
Citigroup maintained its Buy/High Risk rating on Coinbase but significantly adjusted its short-term outlook. The bank clarified that it continues to see the company as a leader within its category, although it warned that the immediate future will be marked by considerable volatility, especially after the recent sharp correction in the stock price.
This change did not imply a structural shift in the long-term view, but rather a recalibration of expectations in a more challenging environment. The recent drop in the stock price forced Citi to revise its operating and accounting assumptions, reflecting a less favorable scenario for immediate results, even though the strategic thesis remains intact.
Specifically, Citigroup cut its price target to $400 and reduced its net income estimate for the fourth quarter of 2025 to approximately $1.69 billion. Furthermore, it now projects a GAAP loss of $2.64 per share, a significant adjustment from previous forecasts and a clear sign of pressure on short-term profitability.
What changed in Citi’s view
The bank explained that a substantial portion of the cut was due to market-marking write-downs on its Coinbase crypto holdings, totaling approximately $2.3 billion. This was compounded by an impairment related to its stake in Circle, accounting items that, while not directly affecting daily operations, significantly impacted reported results.
Added to these factors was lower institutional participation, which reduced volumes and weakened one of the company’s main revenue drivers. Overall, Citi described a scenario where the cost structure and exposure to digital assets amplified the effects of the crypto market correction on financial results.
At the time of the cut, the stock was trading in a range of approximately $146 to $156, meaning the new target of $400 would more than double the current price. This gap reflects the tension between short-term headwinds and long-term optionality if trading volumes recover and the regulatory environment improves.
For investors, the combination of revised target and maintained rating neatly encapsulates the current dilemma. Coinbase remains highly sensitive to volume and institutional demand, while regulatory clarity emerges as the primary valuation driver.
