Cardano (ADA) has not been immune to the recent turmoil in the crypto market, experiencing significant price drops and reaching multi-month lows. However, it appears to be showing genuine signs of a price rebound.
Market metrics show a significant shift in Cardano’s (ADA) holding structure. The proportion of profit-taking supply fell dramatically from over 33% in mid-January to around 8% in early February 2026, representing a drop of nearly 75%. This adjustment left most holders at break-even or with unrealized losses, significantly reducing the immediate incentive to sell.
In parallel, coin activity also cooled. Following the February 6th sale, the metrics for spent coins dropped by approximately 45%, suggesting fewer panic sellings and a larger proportion of unsold supply. In terms of market dynamics, this implies that structural selling pressure has moderated considerably.
This change removes one of the most common obstacles to a short-term recovery: oversupply from profit-taking holders. For market participants, the message is clear: there are fewer automated sell orders absorbing new buy orders, although this factor alone is not enough to guarantee a sustained upward trend.
Positive signs with a key condition for Cardano’s rebound
From a technical perspective, indicators are beginning to show gradual improvement. On lower timeframes, a possible inverted head and shoulders pattern has been identified, accompanied by a bullish divergence in the RSI. Taken together, these signals suggest that bearish pressure has weakened and that buyers are beginning to regain prominence.
The Money Flow Index reinforces this reading by showing active buying on pullbacks, which supports the accumulation narrative. However, definitive confirmation still depends on volume, which remains the most fragile factor in the current scenario.
On-Balance Volume remains below its descending trendline, indicating that recent rebounds have not seen broad market participation. Without a clear surge in buying volume, bullish attempts risk fizzling out before breaking through the most relevant resistance zones.
In this context, the range between $0.275 and $0.280 is consolidating as critical resistance. A sustained breakout with volume could pave the way to levels near $0.346, while a loss of support around $0.259 would significantly weaken the bullish scenario and return the market to a defensive phase.
