Cardano price has shown a 13% rebound from its December 25 low and is approaching a decisive technical boundary that could precede a larger upswing, according to market analysis. The move consolidates technical signals, on‑chain shifts and network upgrades that together frame a potential path toward the $0.69 level.
ADA is testing the upper trendline of a falling wedge and consolidating inside a three‑month symmetrical triangle—two classical reversal formations that, if cleared, point to materially higher targets. The measured objective for a confirmed wedge breakout projects roughly 79% upside toward $0.69, while a decisive triangle breakout could imply about 60% near‑term gains and open a path toward $1.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures momentum on a 0–100 scale; readings below 30 are commonly interpreted as oversold. Between December 1 and December 25 ADA made lower lows while the RSI made higher lows, a bullish divergence that indicates waning selling pressure.
Technical indicators support Cardano price breakout
Large holders have increased positions in recent days, with reported accumulation of over $41 million (about 3.83 billion ADA) since December 26, and separate reports citing as much as $204 million in whale buys; market analysts interpret this as strategic positioning rather than retail-driven FOMO. Concurrently, on‑chain coin flow has declined by 22%—from 149.43 million to 116.16 million ADA—suggesting fewer older coins are being returned to circulation and reducing near‑term sell pressure. These two factors—concentrated accumulation and falling circulation activity—are cited as reinforcing the technical case for a breakout.
Cardano’s ecosystem metrics provide the fundamental backdrop: 4.83 million unique wallets, roughly 110,000 daily active addresses and more than 2,020 active projects, as reported in recent ecosystem summaries. Protocol-level catalysts include the Plomin and Chang hard forks, the planned Midnight Mainnet launch for privacy features, and AI‑focused integration via the Leios protocol that aims to raise throughput to about 1,000 TPS.
That said, countervailing data are present: total value locked has contracted by about 36% to $186 million and market sentiment readings sit in ‘Fear’ or ‘Extreme Fear’ territory (index near 23–34). Analysts also flag material downside scenarios—loss of the $0.34 support could open a retest toward $0.30 or $0.24—underscoring that the bullish thesis depends on technical alignment and continued on‑chain demand.
