Cardano (ADA) saw a significant price surge thanks to whales accumulating 100 million ADA. The total holdings are estimated at around $40 million, with support levels established at $0.22–$0.26.
On-chain and market metrics show that Cardano experienced a period of intense selling pressure that led to oversold technical conditions. Following the sell-off, the Relative Strength Index fell to the 28–30 range, a level historically associated with the exhaustion of bearish momentum and tactical opportunities for large buyers.
In this context, large holders initiated a concentrated accumulation at key support levels. The buying occurred during a period of reduced liquidity and extremely negative sentiment, which amplified its relative impact on the price and helped contain the immediate technical deterioration.
The size of the transaction was significant: approximately 100 million ADA, worth around $40 million. This demand was concentrated mainly in the $0.22–$0.26 range, effectively defending the psychological floor near $0.25.
Buying pressure reduced the available supply in the short term and generated a technical rebound, illustrating how focused whale activity can stabilize areas of illiquidity and trigger temporary recoveries even within a broader downtrend.
Structural headwinds limiting the recovery
Despite the rebound, the overall environment remains adverse. Market sentiment remains at extreme levels of risk aversion, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 5. This reading reflects a minimal willingness to take risks and typically limits participation from both retail and institutional buyers.
Trader positioning, measured by a long-to-short ratio below 0.95, indicates a net bearish bias. In this scenario, any failed attempt at consolidation could quickly lead to new waves of selling and increased volatility.
Added to these factors is regulatory pressure, which introduces a risk uncorrelated with price. A stricter regulatory framework reduces the scope for new capital inflows and increases operational uncertainty for exchanges and projects, limiting the effectiveness of one-off accumulation by large players.
From a technical perspective, the analysis warns that a break below current support levels could open a deeper illiquidity band, with a lower medium-term target near $0.115. In the absence of a clear shift in sentiment or broader, more sustained capital inflows, whale accumulation appears to be acting as a localized stabilizer, rather than the foundation for a structural and lasting rally.
