Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is showing marked consolidation, trading around $114,500 this October 26th, with a slight drop of 0.50% in 24 hours. The market remains sideways as investors assess global macroeconomic trends. The Bitcoin price prediction and trade deal between the U.S. and China is the main focus. Traders await the resolution of negotiations to define the next trend, in a market that maintains a daily volume exceeding $47 billion.
Recent optimism is based on reports of consensus on key disputes. Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to finalize the framework of the agreement this week. According to statements from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods is “off the table.” This is a significant breakthrough for the markets. Furthermore, China is expected to resume substantial soybean purchases and would delay restrictions on rare earths for a year. A confirmed agreement could ease supply chain pressures. This would boost global investor confidence, benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin.
Although trade optimism has stabilized risk appetite, uncertainty persists. The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office (USTR) has initiated a Section 301 investigation. This investigates China’s alleged noncompliance with the 2020 Phase One Agreement. The probe focuses on intellectual property gaps and technology transfers. This investigation, active until December 16, could reignite tariff tensions if Washington finds grounds. China’s Foreign Ministry rejected the allegations, stating it has fulfilled its obligations. Historically, shifts in U.S.–China relations influence global liquidity and risk sentiment.
Is Bitcoin Preparing for an Imminent Rally or Drop?
On the technical analysis side, BTC/USD continues to consolidate below $114,950. This level represents a critical resistance aligned with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. The 4-hour chart reveals a potential double-top pattern. This indicates a clear sign of buyer fatigue following last week’s rebound from $108,667. The RSI near 63 shows waning bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the price remains capped below the 50-day EMA, a key trend indicator. The global economy is closely watching these technical indicators.
A bullish break above $116,000 could drive Bitcoin toward $117,669 and $120,571. A close above $120,571 would strengthen the advance toward the September highs at $124,148. However, a failure at the current resistance could trigger a pullback toward $113,552 and $112,255. A sustained drop below $112,000 would confirm a bearish double-top. This would expose significant downside risk toward the $108,667 support. The short-term outlook remains neutral, directly depending on geopolitical news and the trade resolution.
