Bitnomial received a staff-level no-action letter from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on january, clearing the way for the firm to operate prediction-market contracts for U.S. customers.
The approvals position Bitnomial as a unified exchange-and-clearing provider able to combine crypto margin collateral, settlement and a broad derivatives menu—from perpetuals and futures to options and prediction contracts—under a single regulatory framework.
The CFTC staff-level no-action letter granted on january 8 permits Bitnomial to list and operate event-based contracts tied to cryptocurrency price moves, economic indicators and other financial outcomes. Bitnomial had already secured clearinghouse permission on december to clear fully-collateralized swaps, enabling counterparties to trade and settle with crypto-backed collateral.
In its announcement, the company said the combined permissions let Bitnomial offer an integrated suite of derivatives and clearing services, and to provide clearing to partner prediction markets across broader categories. That vertical integration strengthens its role as a full-service U.S. exchange and clearinghouse in the digital-derivatives space.
Where Bitnomial fits in the market
Bitnomial joins a fast-expanding group of firms that have secured U.S. regulatory clearance for prediction markets. Gemini obtained approval to operate a Designated Contract Market on past december. Polymarket returned to the U.S. after gaining CFTC approval in november following its acquisition of a licensed entity earlier in the year. Other platforms — including DraftKings, PredictIt and LedgerX — also received no-action relief in the months before January 2026.
Large platforms and intermediaries moved aggressively in late 2025. Coinbase launched prediction markets and tokenized stocks on decembern partnership with Kalshi while simultaneously challenging several states in federal court over regulatory restrictions. Kalshi reported heavy activity in December 2025, with weekly trading peaks of roughly $2.3 billion and monthly volumes near $4.4 billion; broader industry volumes reached about $7.7 billion in November 2025.
By combining exchange functions with a clearinghouse licensed to clear fully-collateralized swaps, Bitnomial reduces counterparty and settlement friction for event contracts. That structure shifts some operational risk into the clearing layer while enabling products to settle using crypto collateral—an arrangement that changes margin dynamics and liquidity provision.
The way those variables evolve will determine whether prediction markets become a durable component of U.S. digital derivatives or remain a high-growth, high-compliance niche.
