Economist Timothy Peterson recently revealed crucial data suggesting an imminent Bitcoin price recovery, based on fundamental historical network valuation metrics. This analysis indicates that the asset is currently trading below its theoretical fair value, a technical divergence that has historically preceded positive returns in the following year.
Currently, BTC is trading approximately 31.4% below its all-time high of $126,000 recorded in October, a situation that has placed its price under the Metcalfe value curve. This particular technical scenario had not been observed for two years, coinciding with moments where excessive market leverage has been purged almost completely. According to the data presented by Peterson, when the asset price falls below this critical threshold, there is a 96% historical probability of positive performance one year later, reinforcing the thesis that the asset is currently undervalued.
Are we facing the most reliable buy signal before the next bull cycle?
Metcalfe’s Law states that fair value rises in correlation with the growth of active addresses and transactions, suggesting that Bitcoin is undervalued relative to its current network expansion. On the other hand, recent data from analytics firm Nansen confirms that the number of transactions on the network increased by 15% over the last seven days, reaching 3.06 million. Furthermore, Charles Edwards reported a notable increase in investors holding their assets for more than six months, demonstrating robust adoption beyond mere market speculation.
The spot market shows vital signs of reactivation, with the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) reversing dramatically from negative to positive figures over the last week. This key metric went from -106.6 million to 29 million dollars, signaling renewed aggression from the buy-side despite reduced liquidity in the order books. Glassnode highlights that this structural shift indicates a strengthening of institutional buying flow, favoring overall sentiment towards an eventual Bitcoin price recovery.
Looking toward the horizon of 2026, the convergence of persistent institutional buying and macroeconomic tailwinds could drive market value significantly higher. External factors such as Fed easing would help the asset resume the trend of the leading cryptocurrency above the Metcalfe value line. Therefore, analysts anticipate the possibility of reaching new all-time highs by the middle of next year, provided that the current pace of network growth is maintained.
