Bitcoin continues to fall to levels far from its all-time high, creating a significant divide among traders. Some believe it will drop to $69,000 in the short term, while others believe it is simply preparing for a rebound to $100,000.
Bitcoin continues to fall, and prediction markets on Myriad showed a 51.6% probability of a recovery to $100,000. During the same period, the probability of a drop to $69,000 also doubled, highlighting the significant divide within the market between traders, institutions, and predictions.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $82,927, placing it approximately 18% above the 200-day EMA, a level that observers have linked to the $69,000 price range.
On the other hand, other market data indicates a more bearish sentiment. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plummeted to “Extreme Fear,” and institutional flows showed outflows from Bitcoin ETFs exceeding $817 million, further putting pressure on the cryptocurrency and shifting funds to others like Solana.
The future of Bitcoin and key aspects to consider
A death cross has formed near the $100,000 area between the 23-day and 50-day moving averages, a pattern traders consider bearish for short-term momentum. Conversely, the $69,000 band coincides with the 200-day EMA and historical reference points from previous cycles; a sustained break below this zone would likely accelerate directional selling.
There are also other factors not helping Bitcoin’s momentum. Fears of another US government shutdown persist, and without a key regulatory framework, market sentiment remains negative. For traders and allocators, the operational conclusion is that positioning is concentrated on the uncertainty. Hedging costs and skew are likely to remain elevated until one side of the debate triggers a decisive move.
A drop below $69,000 would likely trigger faster deleveraging. A sustained push above $100,000 would need to break through the moving average crossover and generate renewed inflows into ETFs and long futures positions. Markets appeared to be waiting for a clear catalyst to break the stagnation—and until that catalyst arrived, the path for BTC seemed more likely to be volatile than a quiet appreciation or decline.
