Bitcoin climbed about 2% to roughly $93.500 after U.S. December Consumer Price Index data signaled cooling inflation, strengthening expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The December CPI showed headline inflation at 2,7% year‑over‑year and a core monthly print of +0,2% (annual 2,6%), readings that came in slightly below consensus and were taken by markets as evidence of slowing price pressures.
That reading tightened the narrative for a “soft landing” and, as 21Shares strategist Matt Mena noted, the lower‑than‑expected core print “increased the likelihood of further interest rate cuts later in the year.” The CME FedWatch Tool still priced a ~95% probability that the Fed would hold rates at its January meeting, but the CPI shifted expectations for cuts beyond that point.
Across asset classes the response was mixed: gold pushed past the $4.600 mark while major U.S. equity indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped modestly. For crypto traders, the immediate takeaway was a liquidity boost for risk assets rather than a broad risk‑on rotation.
Technicals, levels and near‑term catalysts
Bitcoin is trading into a resistance band between $93.500 and $95.000 that had capped price action for nearly two months. The CPI print supplied the momentum to test that zone, but the band remains a key supply area for managers and traders assessing entries and hedges.
Market commentary in the aftermath pointed to several near‑term drivers that will determine whether Bitcoin can clear the resistance band: incoming retail‑sales and housing data, potential Senate action on digital‑asset market structure, and geopolitical frictions — notably tensions referenced between President Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell — that could reintroduce volatility.
Some observers suggested that sustained disinflation and eventual rate cuts could unlock larger institutional flows and lift BTC toward psychologically important levels, with $100.000 cited in commentary as an achievable test if conditions remain supportive.
For options and futures desks, the CPI move likely altered gamma and hedging dynamics for short‑dated expiries; traders will be watching open interest shifts and skew for signs of a bullish re‑pricing. Funding rates and basis spreads should be monitored for evidence of leverage-driven upside pressure, while managers may shorten hedges ahead of the next economic prints.
Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming retail‑sales and housing figures as the immediate tests of this sentiment shift; those releases, together with any legislative developments on market structure, will determine whether the current repricing of Fed policy is durable and whether Bitcoin can build above the $93.500–$95.000 band.
